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1、WhenWillAIExceedHumanPerformance?EvidencefromAIExpertsKatjaGrace1,2,JohnSalvatier2,AllanDafoe1,3,BaobaoZhang3,andOwainEvans11FutureofHumanityInstitute,OxfordUniversity2AIImpacts3DepartmentofPoliticalScience,YaleUniversityAbstractAdvancesinartificiali
2、ntelligence(AI)willtransformmodernlifebyreshapingtransportation,health,science,finance,andthemilitary[1,2,3].Toadaptpublicpolicy,weneedtobetteranticipatetheseadvances[4,5].Herewereporttheresultsfromalargesurveyofmachinelearningresearchersontheirbelie
3、fsaboutprogressinAI.ResearcherspredictAIwilloutper-formhumansinmanyactivitiesinthenexttenyears,suchastranslatinglanguages(by2024),writinghigh-schoolessays(by2026),drivingatruck(by2027),workinginretail(by2031),writingabestsellingbook(by2049),andworkin
4、gasasurgeon(by2053).Researchersbelievethereisa50%chanceofAIoutperforminghumansinalltasksin45yearsandofautomatingallhumanjobsin120years,withAsianrespondentsexpectingthesedatesmuchsoonerthanNorthAmericans.Theseresultswillinformdiscussionamongstresearch
5、ersandpolicymakersaboutanticipatingandmanagingtrendsinAI.IntroductionAdvancesinartificialintelligence(AI)willhavemassivesocialconsequences.Self-drivingtech-nologymightreplacemillionsofdrivingjobsoverthecomingdecade.Inadditiontopossibleunemployment,th
6、etransitionwillbringnewchallenges,suchasrebuildinginfrastructure,pro-tectingvehiclecyber-security,andadaptinglawsandregulations[5].Newchallenges,bothforAIdevelopersandpolicy-makers,willalsoarisefromapplicationsinlawenforcement,militarytech-nology,and
7、marketing[6].Toprepareforthesechallenges,accurateforecastingoftransformativeAIwouldbeinvaluable.SeveralsourcesprovideobjectiveevidenceaboutfutureAIadvances:trendsincomputinghardware[7],taskperformance[8],andtheautomationoflabor[9].ThepredictionsofAIe
8、xpertsprovidecrucialadditionalinformation.WesurveyalargerandmorerepresentativesampleofAIexpertsthananystudytodate[10,11].OurquestionscoverthetimingofAIadvances(includingbothpracticalapplicationsofAIandtheautomationofvarioushumanjobs),aswellasthesocia