股利分析理论与政策

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1、DividendPolicy:TheoryandPractice股利理论与政策余明桂教授博士生导师武汉大学经济与管理学院会计系电话：027-68753121;13277085145Email:ymgyz@163.comDoyoupreferdividendpayout?如果你是股东，持有某上市公司的股票，你希望公司经常分配股利吗？（如果是，那么，你希望得到现金股利还是股票股利？）如果你是公司的CEO，你愿意向股东分配股利吗？（如果是，那么，你愿意分析现金股利还是股票股利？）Whatisdividendp

2、olicy?Thedecisiontopayoutearningsv.s.toretainandreinvestthem.Dividendpolicyincludes:Highorlowdividendpayout?Stableorirregulardividends?Howfrequenttopaydividends?CashdividendorStockdividend?DividendPolicyTheoriesofdividendsDodividendsmatter?Signalingeffec

3、tsResidualmodelDividendreinvestmentplansStockdividendsandstocksplitsStockrepurchasesDividendpracticeinChinaDifferentTypesofDividendsManycompaniespayaregularcashdividend.Publiccompaniesoftenpayquarterly.Sometimesfirmswillthrowinanextracashdividend.Theextr

4、emecasewouldbealiquidatingdividend.Oftencompanieswilldeclarestockdividends.Nocashleavesfromthefirm.Thefirmincreasesthenumberofsharesoutstanding.Doinvestorspreferhighorlowdividendpayouts?Threetheoriesofdividendpolicy:Dividendirrelevance:Investorsdon’tcare

5、aboutpayout.Bird-in-the-hand:Investorspreferahighpayout.Taxpreference:Investorspreferalowpayout.DividendIrrelevanceTheory(MillerandModigliani,MM,1961)Investorsareindifferentbetweendividendsandretention-generatedcapitalgains.Investorscancreatetheirowndivi

6、dendpolicy:Iftheywantcash,theycansellstock.Iftheydon’twantcash,theycanusedividendstobuystock.ProposedbyModiglianiandMiller(1961)andbasedonunrealisticassumptions,hencemaynotbetrue.Needanempiricaltest.assumptionsperfectmarket:notaxesorbrokeragecosts;Stockp

7、ricecan’tbemanipulatedbyanyinvestor.Allinvestorshavethegeneralbeliefsinfirminvestment,income,anddividend.Investmentdecisionsaremadebeforedividend.Implication:anypayoutisOK.Bird-in-the-HandTheory(Gordon,1961)Investorsthinkthatdividendsarelessriskythanpote

8、ntialfuturecapitalgains,hencetheylikedividends.在投资者眼里，现金股利收入要比由留存收益带来的资本收益更为可靠，故需要公司定期向股东支付较高的股利。用留存收益再投资带给投资者的收益具有很大的不确定性，并且投资风险将随着时间的推移而进一步增大，因此，投资者更喜欢现金股利，而不大喜欢将利润留给公司。公司分配的股利越多，公司的市场价值也就越大。“两鸟在林不如一鸟在手”.Implication:seta