贸易战：离全球衰退还有一步之遥：市场准备好了（全球宏观）

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1、ExecutiveSummary3Near-TermSignposts8TariffEscalationinContext9EstimatingtheTariffImpact12Box:Huawei15Box:OilSensitivity19Box:HowtoMeasureaGlobalRecession20ImpactonUSEconomy22Box:TheCaseofthenowmissingMexicanTariffs24ImpactonChina'seconomy25ImpactonEurozone27ImpactonJa

2、pan’sEconomy29ImpactonRestofAsia–PainandGain31MarketImplicationsofUS-ChinaTariffs33I.Tradewarescalationisnotpriced35II.Whyaren'tmarketsmoreworried?36Box:Understandingassetmarketphases37Equities:Calmheadline,frightenedinternals38Framingthedownsideforglobalequities39Imp

3、actonUSequitymarket41ImpactonEuropeanequitymarket43ImpactonEMequitymarkets45FX:Strongerdollarasglobalgrowthslows48Box:HowtheUSDcanhaveitscakeandeatittoo49Rates:Asymmetrictothedownside53Credit:Lackofprofitswilluncovertrueleverage56Wherecancyclicalweaknessexposestructur

4、alproblems?59Box:Tradesforthingsgoingright65AppendixI:"Whatif"MexicoTariffshadgoneahead?68AppendixII:Screensforstocksnegativelyimpactedbytrade70ExecutiveSummaryFigure1:Globalaverageappliedweightedtariffacrossallproducts%UScontributiontoglobaltotal8Chinacontributiontog

5、lobaltotalAvgappliedweightedtariffglobally7AdditionfromUStariffs+retaliation(2018)6AdditionfromUStariffs+retaliation(2019)5TheUSaccountsfor75%oftheincreaseintheglobalweightedavgtariffthelast2years,(theother25%isRoWretaliationtothosetariffs)pushingusbackto2003)levels

6、UnlessadealisstruckbetweentheUSandChinainthecomingweeks,theglobalweightedaveragetariffswillgobackupto2003levelsandtheUSweightedtariffbackto1947levels.TheUSwouldaccountfor74%ofthe43210929496980002040608101214161820116bpincreaseintheglobalweightedaverageimporttariff.So

7、urce:UBS,WorldBank,HaverFigure2:Globalgrowth–baselinevstradedisruption(QoQannualizedrates)BaselineChina/UStariffsChina/US/Mexicotariffs%4.54.03.53.02.52.009/1703/1809/1803/1909/1903/2009/20Source:UBS,HaverFigure3:ImpactofUS/Chinatariffsonlevelofgrowthbyregion(Q219–Q42

8、0)bp0-20-40-60-80WeestimatethiswouldlowerthelevelofglobalGDPby75bpover6quartersandcreatea'globalrecession'similarinseverity