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1、IEEETRANSACTIONSONPOWERSYSTEMS,VOL.23,NO.3,AUGUST20081309PowerSystemOperationRiskAssessmentUsingCredibilityTheoryYongqingFeng,WenchuanWu,Member,IEEE,BomingZhang,SeniorMember,IEEE,andWenyuanLi,Fellow,IEEEAbstract—FailureprobabilityofsystemcomponentsmayvaryRSetofrealnumbers.withth
2、echangesofweather,environmentandotheroperationconditions.Thetime-varyingorcondition-basedfailureproba-ChPrimitivechanceofrandomfuzzyevent.bilitycanberepresentedusingafuzzymodel.BasedoncredibilityMeanchanceofrandomfuzzyevent.theory,thispaperpresentsanoveloperationriskassessmentme
3、thodtohandlethetwo-folduncertaintycombiningrandomnessProbabilitymeasureofrandomevent.andfuzzinessinpowersystemoperations.Intheproposedmethod,arandomfuzzymodelisdevelopedtoaccommodateimpactsdueproSubscriptrepresentingrandomness.tovariousoperationconditionsandotherfactorsonthefail
4、ureprobabilityofsystemcomponents.TheWECCnine-bussystem,fuzSubscriptrepresentingfuzziness.IEEE14-bussystemandanactualpowersysteminNortheastRandomfuzzyvariablerepresentingChinawereusedtodemonstratefeasibilityandapplicabilityoftheuncertaintyofcomponentpresentedmethod.Theoperationri
5、skassessmentmoduleusingtheproposedmethodhasbeenembeddedintheEMSsysteminacondition-dependentoutage.districtcontrolcenterofapowercompanytoperformreal-timeSeverityfunctionofacontingencyeventoperationriskassessment.consideringtwo-folduncertainty.IndexTerms—Credibilitytheory,operatio
6、nrisk,powersystems,securityassessment.Nonemptyset.-algebraofsubsetsof.NOMENCLATUREProbabilityspace.Nonemptyset.Possibilityspace.Emptyset.Powersetof.I.INTRODUCTIONNTERCONNECTEDpowersystemsareverycomplexwithMinimumoperator.Icharacteristicsofhighuncertainty.However,mostofprac-Maxim
7、umoperator.ticalcomputingtoolsforpowersystemevaluationintheenergyPosPossibilitymeasureoffuzzyevent.managementsystem(EMS)arebasedondeterministicmethods,inwhichonlytheconsequencesofcontingenciesareconsid-NecNecessitymeasureoffuzzyevent.eredbutthelikelihoodofcontingenciesisignored.
8、Thedeter-CrCredibilitymeasureoffuzzyevent.minis
