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1、WP/13/125ThatSqueezingFeeling:TheInterestBurdenandPublicDebtStabilizationXavierDebrunandTidianeKinda©2013InternationalMonetaryFundWP/13/125IMFWorkingPaperFiscalAffairsDepartmentThatSqueezingFeeling:TheInterestBurdenandPublicDebtStabilizationPreparedbyXavierDeb
2、runandTidianeKinda1AuthorizedfordistributionbyMartineGuerguilMay2013ThisWorkingPapershouldnotbereportedasrepresentingtheviewsoftheIMF.TheviewsexpressedinthisWorkingPaperarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheIMForIMFpolicy.WorkingPapersdescr
3、iberesearchinprogressbytheauthorsandarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtofurtherdebate.AbstractThepaperexplorestheextenttowhichthepressureofdebtserviceonotherspendingitemsmaypushgovernmentstoembarkonfiscalconsolidationbeyondwhatisstrictlynecessarytosecuresolvency.
4、Theempiricalanalysisidentifiesthresholdsofinterestbillindicatorsbeyondwhichgovernmentsappeartoshifttopoliciesaimedatdurablycurbingthedebttrajectory.Hence,inthecurrentcontextofhighinheritedpublicdebts,countriesexperiencingrisingborrowingcostsandinterestpayments
5、wouldbemorelikelytoenactmoreaggressivefiscalconsolidationsthanwarrantedbystrictsolvencyconcerns.Conversely,thosebenefitingfrompersistentlylowinterestratesdespiterisingdebtstockswouldlikelyoptforamoregradualfiscalconsolidationpaththanwhatsolvencyconsiderationsw
6、ouldnormallydictate.JELClassificationNumbers:E62,E63,H62,H63.Keywords:Publicdebt,interestpayments,fiscalconsolidation.Authors’E-MailAddresses:xdebrun@imf.org,tkinda@imf.org.1Withoutimplicationsinremainingerrorsoromissions,commentsbyCarloCottarelli,MartineGuerg
7、uil,AtishGhosh,SumanBasu,MarcosdeCarvalhoChamon,SergioSola,andseminarparticipantsattheIMFandCERDI(Universitéd’Auvergne-Clermont1)ledtosubstantialimprovementsinthepaper.2ContentsI.Introduction.....................................................................
8、.........................................................3II.HighDebtLegacy,TheRateofInterestandOptimalFiscalPolicy.......................................4III.EmpiricalAnalysis....
