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1、IMFStaffPapersVol.56,No.3&2009InternationalMonetaryFundPublicDebt,MoneySupply,andInflation:ACross-CountryStudyGOOHOONKWON,LAVERNMCFARLANE,andWAYNEROBINSONThispaperprovidescomprehensiveempiricalevidencethatsupportsthepredictionsofSargentandWallace’s‘‘unpleasantmonetarist
2、arithmetic’’thatanincreaseinpublicdebtistypicallyinflationaryincountrieswithlargepublicdebt.Drawingonanextensivepaneldataset,wefindthattherelationshipholdsstronglyinindebteddevelopingcountries,weaklyinotherdevelopingcountries,andgenerallydoesnotholdindevelopedeconomies.Th
3、eseresultsarerobusttotheinclusionofothervariables,correctionsforendogeneitybiases,relaxationofcommon-sloperestrictions,andareinvariantoversubsampleperiods.Weestimateavectorautoregressiontotraceoutthetransmissionchannelandfindtheimpulseresponsesconsistentwiththeprediction
4、sofaforward-lookingmodelofinflation.Wealtheffectsofpublicdebtcouldalsoaffectinflation,aspositedbythefiscaltheoryofthepricelevel,butwedonotfindsupportiveevidence.Theresultssuggestthattheriskofadebt-inflationtrapissignificantinhighlyindebtedcountriesandpuremoney-basedstabilizat
5、ionisunlikelytobeeffectiveoverthemediumterm.Ourfindingsstresstheimportanceofinstitutionalandstructuralfactorsinthelinkbetweenfiscalpolicyandinflation.[JELE31,E62,E63,C59]IMFStaffPapers(2009)56,476–515.doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.26;publishedonline21October2008GoohoonKwonisExec
6、utiveDirectoroftheGlobalInvestmentResearchDepartmentofGoldmanSachs.LavernMcFarlaneisaneconomist,andWayneRobinsonisthechiefeconomist,withtheResearchDepartmentoftheBankofJamaica.TheauthorsthankRubenAtoyan,MarkdeBroeck,RobertFlood,JaewooLee,JohnRobinson,andJerominZettelmey
7、eraswellasseminarparticipantsattheIMFandtheBankofJamaicaforvaluablecommentsandsuggestions.Theauthorsarealsogratefultotwoanonymousrefereesfortheirhelpfulcomments.476PUBLICDEBT,MONEYSUPPLY,ANDINFLATION:ACROSS-COUNTRYSTUDYhemostwidelyacceptedschoolofthoughtoninflationisthat
8、itisaTmonetaryphenomenonandthereforethereductionofinflationislargelythepurviewofmonetarypolicy,particularlyinth
