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ID:40355876
大小:3.03 MB
页数:77页
时间:2019-07-31
《What is a Sustainable Public Debt》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、WhatisaSustainablePublicDebt?PabloD'ErasmoEnriqueG.MendozaFederalReserveBankofPhiladelphiaUniversityofPennsylvania,NBER&PIERJingZhangFederalReserveBankofChicagoApril16,2015AbstractThequestionofwhatisasustainablepublicdebtisparamountinthemacroeconomicanalysisofscalpolicy.Thisquesti
2、onisusuallyformulatedasaskingwhethertheoutstandingpublicdebtanditsprojectedpathareconsistentwiththoseofthegovernment'srevenuesandexpenditures(i.e.whetherscalsolvencyconditionshold).Weidentifycritical awsinthetraditionalapproachtoevaluatedebtsustainability,andexaminethreealternative
3、approachesthatprovideusefuleconometricandmodel-simulationtoolstoanalyzedebtsustainability.TherstapproachisBohn'snon-structuralempiricalframeworkbasedonascalreactionfunctionthatcharacterizesthedynamicsofsustainabledebtandprimarybalances.Thesecondisastructuralapproachbasedonacalibra
4、teddynamicgeneralequilibriumframeworkwithafullyspeciedscalsector,whichweusetoquantiythepositiveandnormativeeectsofscalpoliciesaimedatrestoringscalsolvencyinresponsetochangesindebt.Thethirdapproachdeviatesfromtheothersinassumingthatgovernmentscannotcommittorepaytheirdomesticdeb
5、t,andcanthusoptimallydecidetodefaultevenifdebtissutainableintermsofscalsolvency.WeusethesethreeapproachestoanalyzedebtsustainabilityintheUnitedStatesandEuropeaftertherecentsurgeinpublicdebtfollowingthe2008crisis,andndthatallthreeraiseseriousquestionsabouttheprospectsofscaladjustm
6、entanditsconsequencesinadvancedeconomies.ThispaperwaspreparedforVolume2oftheHandbookofMacroeconomics.WearegratefultoJuanHernandez,ChristianProbstingandValentinaPiamiottifortheirvaluableresearchassistance.Theviewsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyre ectthose
7、oftheFederalReserveBankofChicago,theFederalReserveBankofPhiladelphia,ortheFederalReserveSystem.11IntroductionThequestionofwhatisasustainablepublicdebtisparamountinthemacroeconomicanalysisofscalpolicy.Thequestionisoftenunderstoodasaskingwhetherthegovernmentissolvent.Thatis,whetherth
8、eoutstandingstockof
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