aer.100.2.41 Debt Consolidation and Fiscal Stabilization of Deep Recessions

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1、AmericanEconomicReview:Papers&Proceedings100(May2010):41–45http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.100.2.41DebtConsolidationandFiscalStabilizationofDeepRecessionsByGiancarloCorsetti,KeithKuester,AndrÉMeier,andGernotJ.Müller*Theglobalfinancial

2、crisisof2008–09has2611sentpublicdebtonsharplyhighertrajectories,UK1/2510US(rightscale)2/asgovernmentshaveprovidedlargescalesup-249porttothefinancialsystem,implementeddis-cretionaryfiscalstimulus,andaccommodated238steepdropsintaxrevenue.Withtheeconomic22

3、7recoverygraduallytakinghold,thefocusisnow21Projections6shiftingtofiscal“exitstrategies.”Indeed,many205countriesaresettofacesignificantretrenchment200320052007200920112013201520172019ingovernmentspendingoverthemediumterm.IntheUnitedStates,forexample,the

4、ObamaFigure1.DiscretionaryGovernmentExpenditureadministration’s2010budgetpledgesto“cutthe(percentofpotentialGDP)deficitinhalfbytheendof[its]firstterm,and[to]bringnondefensediscretionaryspendingtoNotes:1/Totaldepartmentalexpenditurelimit(IFS).2/Federalgo

5、vernment(CBO).itslowestlevelasashareofGDPsince1962”;seeOfficeofManagementandBudget(2009,1).spendingreversalsreduceinflationaswellasSimilarly,theUKgovernment’sDecember2009nominalandrealinterestrates,thusstimulatingPre-BudgetReportforeseeslargemedium-term

6、demandintheshortrun.Yetthismechanismdeficitcuts,withtwo-thirdsofthefiscaleffortonreliesoncentralbanks’capacitytocontrolshorttheexpenditureside.Figure1showstheoutlooktermrealinterestrates.Inthispaper,wecon-fordiscretionaryspendingasinterpretedbythesidert

7、hecomplicationarisingindeeprecessionstwocountries’respectivefiscalwatchdogs.1whenmonetarypolicyisconstrainedincuttingInnormaltimes,theprospectofafuturepolicyratesbythezerolowerbound(ZLB).“spendingreversal”canbeshowntoamplifytheLowerinflation,undersuchci

8、rcumstances,expansionaryeffectofcurrentfiscalstimulus;inevitablyraisesrealrates.Ourgoalistofor-seeGiancarloCorsetti,AndréMeier,andGernotmallyanalyzewhether,intheneighborhoodofJ.Müller(2009).Allelseequal,anticipatedtheZLB,anticipa