麦肯锡中国移动产业总体战略

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1、CONFIDENTIALChina’sMobileTelecomServicesIndustryOverviewGCOPracticeDevelopmentMay2002ThisreportissolelyfortheuseofFirmpersonnel.Nopartofitmaybecirculated,quoted,orreproducedfordistributionwithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromMcKinsey&Company.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSANDREFERENCESMGMsandCSSinvolvedinth

2、erelevantstudiesincludethefollowing:TonyPerkins(BEI)StefanAlbrecht(BEI)ChipperBoulas(HKO)PeterKenevan(TOK)PerchowJosephChang(SHA)AndrewWu(HKO)HaiWu(BEI)JaneXing(HK)YiFeng(BEI)ShengFLi(SHA)YoshinobuTakanuki(TOK)GraemeHunter(JOH)JuliaYang(BEI)EricXu(BEI)JasonLiu(BEI)ShirleyChen(BEI)Theseri

3、esofPDsincludethefollowing:#ChinaMacroeconomicEnvironment#China’sMobileTelecomServiceIndustryOverview#China’sInternetIndustryOverview#ChinaTelecomEquipmentandServicesOverview#China’sMobileHandsetSectorOverview#ChinaTelecomIndustryRegulatoryOverview#KeySuccessFactorsandCaseStudiesofMNCsEn

4、trytoChina102PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptKEYMESSAGES1.China’smobiletelecomservicemarketishugeandfastgrowing,representingUS$21billionmarketsizein2001andUS$38billionin2005.Thismarketissupportedbytheworld’slargestsubscriberbaseat145million,alreadycomprising15%oftheworld’st

5、otalin2001andgrowingtopotentially218millioninalowcaseor300millioninahighcaseby20052.Thecompetitivelandscapeformobileserviceshasevolvedfromasingleregulatorandoperatortotoday’sduopolyofChinaUnicomandChinaMobile,bothofwhomareunassociatedwiththeMinistryofInformationIndustries.Asecondbreakupo

6、fChinaTelecomisexpectedtoformtwolargetelecomoperators,ChinaTelecomandChinaNetcomGroup,whoarelikelytoreceivemobilelicenses.Afifthtelecomoperator,ChinaRailcom,alsohasthepotentialofreceivingathirdgenerationlicenseandbuildingamobilebusiness.Fornow,ChinaMobiledominatesthemarketwith82%valuesha

7、reand72%subscribershareandownsmuchofthehighvalueuserbase.Howeverchurnisalreadyhighandisexpectedtoincreasewithcontinuingpricingpressuresandincreasedcompetition.3.WirelessdataservicesareexpectedtogrowquicklyinChinatoamarketofpotentiallyoverUS$4billionby2005,usedby43%ofallmo