麦肯锡中国移动总体战略e文版

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1、CONFIDENTIALChina’sMobileTelecomServicesIndustryOverviewGCOPracticeDevelopmentMay2002ThisreportissolelyfortheuseofFirmpersonnel.Nopartofitmaybecirculated,quoted,orreproducedfordistributionwithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromMcKinsey&Company.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSANDREFERENCESMG

2、MsandCSSinvolvedintherelevantstudiesincludethefollowing:TonyPerkins(BEI)StefanAlbrecht(BEI)ChipperBoulas(HKO)PeterKenevan(TOK)PerchowJosephChang(SHA)AndrewWu(HKO)HaiWu(BEI)JaneXing(HK)YiFeng(BEI)ShengFLi(SHA)YoshinobuTakanuki(TOK)GraemeHunter(JOH)JuliaYang(BEI)EricXu(

3、BEI)JasonLiu(BEI)ShirleyChen(BEI)TheseriesofPDsincludethefollowing:#ChinaMacroeconomicEnvironment#China’sMobileTelecomServiceIndustryOverview#China’sInternetIndustryOverview#ChinaTelecomEquipmentandServicesOverview#China’sMobileHandsetSectorOverview#ChinaTelecomIndust

4、ryRegulatoryOverview#KeySuccessFactorsandCaseStudiesofMNCsEntrytoChina102PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptKEYMESSAGES1.China’smobiletelecomservicemarketishugeandfastgrowing,representingUS$21billionmarketsizein2001andUS$38billionin2005.Thismarketissupporte

5、dbytheworld’slargestsubscriberbaseat145million,alreadycomprising15%oftheworld’stotalin2001andgrowingtopotentially218millioninalowcaseor300millioninahighcaseby20052.Thecompetitivelandscapeformobileserviceshasevolvedfromasingleregulatorandoperatortotoday’sduopolyofChina

6、UnicomandChinaMobile,bothofwhomareunassociatedwiththeMinistryofInformationIndustries.AsecondbreakupofChinaTelecomisexpectedtoformtwolargetelecomoperators,ChinaTelecomandChinaNetcomGroup,whoarelikelytoreceivemobilelicenses.Afifthtelecomoperator,ChinaRailcom,alsohasthep

7、otentialofreceivingathirdgenerationlicenseandbuildingamobilebusiness.Fornow,ChinaMobiledominatesthemarketwith82%valueshareand72%subscribershareandownsmuchofthehighvalueuserbase.Howeverchurnisalreadyhighandisexpectedtoincreasewithcontinuingpricingpressuresandincreasedc

8、ompetition.3.WirelessdataservicesareexpectedtogrowquicklyinChinatoamarketofpotentiallyoverUS$4billionby2005,usedby43%ofallmo