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1、TransportPolicy13(2006)254–264www.elsevier.com/locate/tranpolPlanningforanunpredictablefuture:TransportinGreatBritainin2030a,*,AndrewGordonbKironChatterjeeaCentreforTransportandSociety,UniversityoftheWestofEngland,BristolBS161QY,UKbMottMacDonald,StonehamPlace,StonehamLane,Southam
2、pton,HampshireSO509NW,UKReceived17January2005;receivedinrevisedform24October2005;accepted1November2005Availableonline27December2005AbstractThispaperdescribesaresearchstudy,whichexploresalternativefuturescenariosforGreatBritainintheyear2030andtheimplicationsthesehavefortraveldeman
3、dandtransportprovision.FivealternativefuturescenariosarerepresentedintheGBnationaltransportmodelandforecastsareobtainedfortripmaking,trafficlevels,congestionandemissionsin2030.Forallscenariositisexpectedthattherewillbesignificanttrafficgrowth.Trafficgrowthisrestrictedmostinscenariosi
4、ncludingdistance-basedroadchargingonmotorwaysandtrunkroads.However,congestionandcarbondioxideemissionsaremosteffectivelylimitedinscenarioswithcongestion-basedroadcharging,majorimprovementstourbanpublictransportandinvestmentinnewfueltechnologiesandinimprovingengineefficiency.q2005E
5、lsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.Keywords:Scenarioplanning;Forecasting;Traveldemand;Trafficgrowth1.Introductiontransport—railandroad,publicandprivate—inwaysthatincreasechoice’.TransportpolicymakingisusuallyinformedbylongtermThe10yearplan(TYP)wasinformedbyforecastsreportedforecastsoftr
6、aveldemandandtransportsystemperformance.inabackgroundanalysispaper(DETR,2000b).ForecastswereTheseforecastswillbebasedonthebestpossibleestimatesofmadeusingthenationalroadtrafficforecasts(NRTF)frame-futuresocial,economicandtechnologicaltrends.Sensitivityworkofmodelswhichprovidedesti
7、matesoftraveldemandanalysisissometimescarriedouttotesttheimplicationsof(passengerandfreight),traffic,congestion,emissionsandairvariationsinthesetrends.If,however,thefutureturnsouttobequalityin2010underdifferenttransportscenarios(baselinecompletelydifferenttothatenvisagedtheadopted
8、transportscenariowithoutTYP,TYPscenario,
