建银国际—非核心产品销售疲软2012.07.18

《建银国际—非核心产品销售疲软2012.07.18》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、China/HongKongConsumerStaplesPrinceFrogInternational(1259HK)18July2012CompanyRating:OutperformWeaksalesofnon-coreproducts(maintained)Interimearningspreview.PrinceFrogwillreport1HFY12resultson22August2012.WeexpectsalesofthePrice:HK$2.31company’scoreFrogPrince-

2、brandedproductstoshowstronggrowthofc.30%YoY,albeitbelowourpreviousTarget:HK$3.10estimateofc.40%,asthecompanycontinuestogainmarket(downfromHK$4.00)shareintherapidlygrowingmarketofchildren’scareproductsinChina.Incontrast,householdhygieneproductsTradingdataandOEM

3、salesarelikelytobeweakerthanwepreviouslyexpectedwithanoverallyear-on-yeardeclineduetothelate52-weekrangeHK$1.33–3.94arrivalofsummerandtheslowingglobaleconomy.Marketcapitalization(m)HK$2,329/US$300Sharesoutstanding(m)1,008Positivemargintrends.Thefavorableshift

4、insalesmixFreefloat(%)40towardschildren’scareproductscoupledwiththelaunchofAveragedailyT/Osincelisting(mshare)6.2thehigh-marginKAproductlineshouldcontinuetounderpinAveragedailyT/Osincelisting(US$m)2.3mildgrossmargingrowth.DespiteanexpectedriseinExpectedreturn(

5、%)–1year36.7PrinceFrog’smarketingbudgettoc.15%ofrevenue,theClosingpriceon18July2012overallSG&AexpenseratioislikelytoremainmanageableasFY11expensesincludeIPO-relatedone-offcharges.AsaStockpricevs.HSCEIresult,welookforslightnetmarginimprovementinFY12F.HK$3.9Ext

6、endingmarketreach.Duringthefirsthalfof2012,3.73.5PrinceFrogaddednearly3,000newPOStovariousleading3.3nationalandregionalretailers,includingHualianand3.12.9Carrefour.Perhapsmoresignificantly,thecompanyis2.7expectedtosignanagreementwithWalmartinJuly.2.52.32.1Low

7、errevenueestimates,maintainOutperform.Welower1.91.7ourearningsestimatesby11-12%forFY12-13F,mainlyon1.5lowerrevenueassumptions,thoughwestillprojectstrong1.314-Jul-1126-Aug-118-Oct-1120-Nov-112-Jan-1214-Feb-1228-Mar-1229%earningsgrowthforFY12F.Valuationsalsorema

8、inPrinceFrogHSCEI(rebased)highlyattractivewiththestockonlessthan6xFY13FP/E.Source:BloombergRollingforwardourvaluationbasistoFY13F,wesetournewtargetpriceatHK$3.10(downfromHK$4.00),b