高盛对宝龙地产首次关注研究报告

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1、November16,2009PowerlongRealEstateHoldings(1238.HK)November16,2009ACTIONBuyPowerlongRealEstateHoldings(1238.HK)ReturnPotential:33%Firstmoveronretailpropertiesinemergingcities;initiatewithBuySourceofopportunityInvestmentProfileWeinitiatecoverageonPowerlongwithaBuyratingan

2、d12-monthNAV-LowHighGrowthGrowthbasedtargetpriceofHK$3.46(33%upsidepotential).AsanichedeveloperReturns*Returns*focusedonretailproperties(60%oftotal2010ENAV)inChina’semergingMultipleMultiplecities,Powerlongoffersthebestproxytotakeadvantageoffast-growingVolatilityVolatilit

3、yconsumptiononfavorablemacrotrendsthere,inourview.ItslowlandPercentile20th40th60th80th100thPowerlongRealEstateHoldings(1238.HK)cost(10%ofASPvs.peers’23%)shouldprovidesufficientbuffertoAsiaPacificPropertyPeerGroupAveragemitigateexecutionchallengesstemmingfromitsrapidcross

4、-regional*Returns=ReturnonCapitalForacompletedescriptionoftheinvestmentprofilemeasurespleaserefertoexpansionandthelaunchofmuchlarger-scaleofretailmalloperationsinthedisclosuresectionofthisdocument.thenextthreeyears.KeydataCurrentCatalystPrice(HK$)2.59Wethinkthefollowingk

5、eycatalystswillhelpnarrowthesharepricediscount12monthpricetarget(HK$)3.46Marketcap(HK$mn/US$mn)10,586.5/1,366.0toNAV:1)Rentalrateimprovementofitsshoppingmalls.WenotetherecentForeignownership(%)73.4rentalrateachievedbythecompanyforitsQingdaomallisonanupwardtrendandweexpec

6、tthistocontinue.2)Potentiallandacquisitions:Weexpect12/0812/09E12/10E12/11EEPS(Rmb)0.100.300.330.38PowerlongtoconcludesomenewacquisitionsinthenextfewmonthsforEPSgrowth(%)10.4196.411.712.9EPS(diluted)(Rmb)0.070.300.330.38whichithasalreadysignedMOUsandlockedinlowlandprices

7、.3)ContinuingEPS(basicpre-ex)(Rmb)0.310.740.610.47strongexecutioninpropertysales,leadingtobettervisibilityon2010P/E(X)22.77.76.86.1P/B(X)3.41.31.00.9earningsgrowth.Inthefirst10monthsof2009,thecompanyachievedRmb1.9EV/EBITDA(X)NM4.85.04.1Dividendyield(%)0.03.53.54.4bncontr

8、actsales,about79%ofourfull-yearforecast.ROE(%)19.726.916.715.4ValuationPriceperformancechartOur12-month