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1、重庆大学博士学位论文滑坡演化过程CA预测理论研究及应用姓名：欧敏申请学位级别：博士专业：岩土工程指导教师：张永兴20060401重庆大学博士学位论文坡的预测研究提供了一种新的方法和思路。关键词：滑坡演化，元胞自动机（CA），CA-Landslide模型，分形分维，自组织临界特征，损伤当量，时空数据模型，地理信息系统II英文摘要ABSTRACTTraditionalmethods，suchasnumericalanalysismethod,limitequilibriummethod,engineeringanalo
2、gymethodandforecastofcomputationintelligencemakegreatprogressesinlandslidepredictandalleviatethedisaster.landslideistoocomplextobeforecastedwellandtrulybecauseofitsstochastic,uncertaintyandthenonlinearlityoftheprocess,anditiswellknowntobeoneofthemostdifficultp
3、roblem.Thethesisisasuccessoroffifteenthproject—researchanddemonstrationonthekeyproblemofsupervision,pre-warninganddecision-makingassistancesupportedsystemofgeologydisasterintheThreeGorgesofYangtseRive(2001BA604A02),whichaimsatthelandslide-forecast,andintroduce
4、cellularautomata(CA)intothestudyoflandslidefirstly.ThethesisstudiesthetheoryapplingCAtosimulatelandslideandestablishesCA-Landslidemodel.OnthebasisofGIS,thenewintelligentcompositive-systemonthedisaster-changingforecastoflandslideissetup.Atlast,Tiefenglandslidei
5、sillustratedtoprovethemodel.Themainconclusionsaresummarizedasfollows:①Thebasicprinciple,constitutesandgeneralcharacteristicsaredescribed.Especiallythewaysandmeanstosimulatelandslideandthebehaviorsofrockaredeeplystudied,andCA-Landslideisestablishedfinally.②Then
6、onlinearlawduringtheprocessoflandslideincludingfractalandself-organizedcriticalcharatersisparticularlystudied,andtherelationshipbetweenthenonlinearlawandthelandslideisresearched.③Basedonthethoughtofsaftyfator,damagevariableisintrouducedintolandslidestudy,andth
7、erelationshipbetweenthedamagevariableandfractalisanalysed.then,thejudgementoftheCA-Landslideisdetermind.④Thebasicmethodandprincipleofthegeographyinformationsystem(GIS)isanalyzed.Therelativekeytechniqueandprogramme,whichisusedtofoundtheGISmodelofthecomprehensiv
8、einformationoflandslideforecast,areresearchedonthebasisofArcViewGIS3.2.Thespatio-temporaldatamodelisalsodiscussed.⑤ThenecessarityandpossibilityofintegrationofCAandGISisanalysedinde
