公路交通安全宏观评价方法研究

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1、西南交通大学硕士学位论文公路交通安全宏观评价方法研究姓名：王琴申请学位级别：硕士专业：交通运输工程指导教师：叶怀珍20061101西南交通大学工程硕士论文第1I页AbstractTheroadsafetyevaluationisoneoftheimportantmeanstopreventeffectivelyandreducethetrafficaccident．Itisintermsofhighwayuserstofindthepotentialfactorofthetrafficaccidentinappra

2、isingtheprojectofthehighway．Doingitaccidentcanbepreventedbeforeithappens，personnelandpropertylosscanbereducedtothegreatestextent．ThisarticleproducedthreemethodstocarryontheappraisaloftrafficsafetyTheyrespectivelyarethe萨aygatheringmethod，basedon罂ayrelationmulti

3、stagegrayappraisallawandself-organizingcompetitivenetwork．ThismethoddifferentfromtheclassicalmethodisnotonlyconsideringtheabsoluteindexesOrseveralrelativeindicescarried011theappraisal，butischoosingaseriesofappraisalindexestocomposeanappraisalsystembeforecarrie

4、dontheappraisal．Intheestablishmentofappraisalindexsystem，thehuman、thevehicle、theroad、theenvironmentandmanyotherfactorsmustbeconsidered．Thusmakecomprehensiveandtheaccurateappraisaltotheobject．’Thegathermethodanalysestheindexesin2002and2003，andcomparetheresultst

5、ofindthedistributionandchangingruleoftrafficsafetycondition．BasedongrayrelationmultistagegrayappraisallawdiscardsthePhilippineruleandintroducesthegrayrelationtoconfirmtheindexweJlghts，meanwhilesolvesthebugofjudgmentmatrixestablishedbyexperts，Moreovertheresultb

6、ythismethodhastheverygoodfeasibility．Theself-organizingcompetitivenetworkisamethodofno·teachingtraining．itdoesnotneedtoconsidertheOUtputexpectedandoperatessimply．ItCanberealizedinthematlabnervenetworktoolbox．Thetrainingresulthastheverystrongusability．．Eachmeth

7、odabovementionedhasachaptertocompleterespectively．Eachchafterhasintroducedtheprinciple，themethodandthemodelconstructed，thenanalysesnationalpartialareasdatain2002and2003，Finallyproducestheappraisalresultandcarriesonthediscussiontotheresult．Fromtheresultsgivenby

8、thethreemethod，weCallseethatinthemajorityofareathreemethodsresultshavenotchanged；asmallpartialareaappraisalresulthasthechangeofarank；theresultsoffewplaceshavehadthebigchange．Itshow