Designing incentive systems for truthful information sharing.pdf

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1、DesigningincentivesystemsfortruthfulinformationsharingUlrichW.ThonemannNewDirectionsSeminarStanfordUniversityApril25,2013BasedonjointworkwithLisaScheele(UniversityofCologne)andMarcoSlikker(EindhovenUniversityofTechnology).Theauthorsgratefullyacknowledget

2、hesupportoftheDeutscheForschungsgemeinschaftthroughtheresearchgroup“DesignandBehavior.”AGENDAMotivationModelLaboratoryExperimentValidationDiscussionUlrichW.Thonemann(UniversityofCologne)1FORECASTINFLATIONATPHARMACEUTICALCOMPANYForecastvs.demandintho

3、usandunitsProduct1Product24570Over-forecastingForecast=20Demand=10forecastforecastDemandDemandUnder-forecasting000Actualdemand450Actualdemand70Averagedemandforecastinflation:Product3Product416%75120forecastforecastDemandDemand000Actualdemand750Actualdema

4、nd1202UlrichW.Thonemann(UniversityofCologne)SECONDEXAMPLESUPPORTSDATAOFFIRSTEXAMPLELog-scaleSalesforceforecastSystemforecastDemand≈200Forecast≈900ForecastbiasHighLowForecasterrorLowHighUlrichW.Thonemann(UniversityofCologne)3TYPICALINCENTIVESYSTEMSTRUCTUR

5、ECASEEXAMPLEDepartmentMarketshareSalesQualitative8%objectives32%Revenues30%30%ProfitOthersServicelevelOperationsStocklevels7%7%3%53%Qualitative30%ObjectivesProfitUlrichW.Thonemann(UniversityofCologne)INCENTIVESYSTEMSOFSALESForecasterrornotpenalizedSales

6、-bonus-onlyIncentivesystemoftenusedinpracticeAbsolutedeviationofforecastfromdemandpenalizedAbsoluteforecasterrorIncentivesystemisbasedonMADandusedinpracticeOver-forecastingharderpenalizedthenunder-forecastingDifferentiatedforecasterrorIncentivesyste

7、mnot/hardlyusedinpracticeUlrichW.Thonemann(UniversityofCologne)5AGENDAMotivationModelLaboratoryExperimentValidationDiscussionUlrichW.Thonemann(UniversityofCologne)6GENERALSETTINGSalessendsSalesobservesforecastofmarketmarketOperationsOperations^Sal

8、esSalesconditionfconditionfMarketdemandd(e.g.,120)(e.g.,100)=Marketconditionf+MarketuncertaintyeOperationsDemandd=f+eestimatesisrealizedandmarketmin(q,d)issoldcondition^Salesandoperationsbasedonf,^receivetheirm(f

9、f)comp