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1、“ResourceDiplomacy”UnderHegemony:stTheSourcesofSino-AmericanCompetitioninthe21Century?ByDavidZweigChairProfessor,DivisionofSocialSciencesDirector,CenteronChina’sTransnationalRelationsHongKongUniversityofScienceandTechnologyhttp://www.cctr.ust.hk/1CenteronChina’sTransna
2、tionalRelationsWorkingPaperNo.18TheHongKongUniversityofScienceandTechnologyForthcomingasaResearchReportfromthePacificCouncilonInternationalPolicyUniversityofSouthernCalifornia,LosAngeles1CorporateSponsor2005-2006:Mr.AndreS.Chouraqui,Chairman;DARTONLtd-SMERWICKGROUPOFCO
3、MPANIES;2006-2007:RonnieC.Chan;ShuiOnHoldingsLimited;East-WestStrategicDevelopmentCommission;IntroductionstIsthis“China’scentury?”WhilemanyobserversofEastAsiaseethe21centuryasthecenturyofChina’srise,amoreinsightfulresponseshouldbeanemphatic“NO!”Why?Becausetheglobalstru
4、ctureshowsthatwhilethenext20yearswillbeyearsduringwhichChinawillcontinuetorise,thatrisewilloccurwithinaninternationalsystemdominatedbyU.S.“hegemony.”Asaresult,theevolutionofthisbilateralrelationshipwilldriveinternationalpoliticsforthecomingseveraldecades.WillChinarisec
5、hallengewhatAmericansseeastheirnationalinterestandtheinternationalnorms(thattheU.S.,asthehegemon,triestosupport?)WilltheUSmakeroomforChinaasitsinfluencegrows,orwillittrytocontainChina’sriseandtherefore,riskinducinganegativeresponse?Iplacenomoraljudgmentontheconceptof“U
6、.S.hegemony;”itismerelyastatementoffact.Intermsofmilitary,cultural,political,moraland“soft”power,theU.S.dominatestheworld.ItseconomicmightischallengedonlybytheEuropeanUnion,butnotbyanysinglememberofthatunion.Americaninfluencewanedinthe1980s,recoveredinthe1990s,butthere
7、centinterventioninIraqhassappedU.S.powerandinfluence.ButtheU.S.stillcastsahugeshadowovertheworld,soChina’sefforttorise,oroureffecttounderstandthatrise,musttakeintoaccounttheglobaldistributionofpower.Infact,accordingtoGoldstein,inthemid-1990s,China’sleadersrecognizedtha
8、tthekeychallengetotheirGrandStrategywastoensurecontinuedgrowthofthecivilianeconomyinlightofa“surprisinglyrobustAmeric