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1、GlobalCarbonCycleandClimateChange:TheEffectofHumanActivityRossJ.SalawitchJetPropulsionLaboratory,CaliforniaInstituteofTechnologyUniversityofMaryland,CollegePark(asof1Sept2007)Ross.Salawitch@jpl.nasa.gov−or−rjs@atmos.umd.eduCSUBakersfield-NASASummerInstitute26June2007M
2、odernCORecord2Δ(CO)years1958to2000≈53ppm=117GtC2CharlesKeeling,ScrippsInstitutionofOceanography,LaJolla,CAhttp://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.htmCarbonEmissionsCOemission,1958to2000=201GtC2Δ(CO),1958to2000≈117GtC2~60%ofcarbonemittedremainsintheatmosphereRestg
3、oestoeither:–oceans–terrestrialbiosphere(treesandplants)–soilsDatafromhttp://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/emis/tre_glob.htmWorldCarbonEmissionsHumanReleaseofCarbonCurrenthumanactivitiesreleaseabout7Gt(gigatons),or7,000,000,000(7×109)tonsofcarbonperyear.Howmuchis7Gtofcarb
4、on?!?HumanReleaseofCarbonCurrenthumanactivitiesreleaseabout7Gt(gigatons),or7,000,000,000(7×109)tonsofcarbonperyear.Howmuchis7Gtofcarbon?!?MazdaMiataweighsabout1ton(2200lbs)7GigatonsC≈7billionMiatasMiataisabout13feetlongEarth’scircumferenceis~25,000miles⇒10millionMiata
5、splacedend-to-end7GigatonsCisequivalenttoaseriesofMiatas,placedend-to-end,encirclingtheEarth700times!StrongCorrelationbetweenCOandSurfaceTemperature,2last~150yearsWhydidCO2starttorise?CarbonProduction86TOTALBIOSPHERE4(mainlyagriculturaldeforestation)BURINGOF2FOSSILFUE
6、LSProductionGtCperyear0SiegenthalerandOescheger,19871760180018401880192019602000YEARStrongCorrelationbetweenCOandSurfaceTemperature,2last~1000yearsStrongCorrelationbetweenCOandSurfaceTemperature,2last~400,000yearsGreenhouseEffectofCO2andGreenhouseEffectofCO2andH2OH2OH
7、oughton,GlobalWarming,CambridgeUnivPress,1997GreenhouseEffect:CloudsGreenhouseEffect:CloudsModelingClimateChangeGHGs,aerosols,andO3SolarandVolcanicForcingNosolar&volcanicForcingAllForcingsIPCC2001ClimateChange:ScientificBasisModelingClimateChangeGHGs,aerosols,O3Solar&
8、VolcanicForcingNosolar&volcanicArehumansresponsible?AllforcingsModelingClimateChangeGHGs,aerosols,O3Solar&VolcanicForcingNos
