empirical analysis of the impact of exchange rate change on priceempirical analysis of the impact of exchange rate change on price论文

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1、对外经济贸易大学硕士学位论文EmpiricalAnalysisoftheImpactofExchangeRateChangeonPrice姓名：张斌申请学位级别：硕士专业：金融学指导教师：林桂军201103AbstractPricesandexchangeratesarethecoreoftheeconomicvariablesinanopeneconomy,andtherearealsoextremelycloserelationshipbetweenthesetwoeconomicvariables·Inthecontinuousdeve

2、lopmentofthehistoryofexchangeratetheory,thepriceandexchangeraterelationshiphavealwaysbeenintertwined．Afterreformand0penj．吡gupfor30years，China’seconomyhastransformedfromahighlycentralizedplannedeconomytowardsafreeandopenmarketeconomy．ThispaperistotestwhetherLawofOnePriceisef

3、fectiveinChinaandonwhatextentitcantakeeffect．ChapteronereviewshistoryofRenminbiexchangerate，Chaptertwogenerallyreviewstherelationsl邱betweenexchangerateandprice，Chapterthreeistheempiricalanalysisofinnuenceofexchangerateondomesticprice．Firstconfn'mthevariables：domesticandfore

4、ignCPI。theRMBexchangerate，thenuseADFTest，Co．integrationTesttoinvestigatetheinfluenceofexchangerateondomesticpriceandanalyzes廿leresultsofthemodelandChapterfourbringsforwardsuggestions．Keywords：exchangeratechange；pricelevd；Consumerpriceindex(CPI)；ADFTest；Co-integrationmodelCh

5、apter1Introduction1．1OverviewAfterreformandopeningupfor30years，China’Seconomyhastransformedfromahighlycentralizedplannedeconomytoafreeandopenmarketeconomy．RMBexchangeratesystem，aSanimportantmacropolicytool，hasexperiencedfourimportantreform．From1979to1984，lU仍exchangeratechan

6、gedfromsingletocomplexthenagaintoasinglecurrencyexchangerate．From1985～1993，theofficialexchangerateandcurrencyexchangerateadjustpricecoexist．Since1994，Chinaimplementedasingle，managedfloatingexchangeratethatbasedonmarketdemandandsupply．UntilJuly21st,2005，RMBbegantostoppegging

7、todollar,ithasimplementedamanagedfloatingexchangeratesystemthatbasedonmarketdemandandsupplywinlreferencetoabasketofcurrencies．Accordingtothepeople’SbankofChina’SmiddlepricedatastatisticsoftheRMBexchangerate，overthepastthreeyearsofnewyuanreformpractice，themiddlepriceofRMBaga

8、instdollarreachedrecordhigh,uptoJuly2008ithasrisenby21％．Meanwhile，theconsumerprice