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1、Theeffectsofexchangeratevariabilityoninternationaltrade:aMeta-RegressionAnalysisBrunoĆorićandGeoffPugh*Correspondingauthor:Prof.GeoffPugh,StaffordshireUniversityBusinessSchool,LeekRoad,Stoke-on-Trent,ST42DF,UK.0044(0)1782294092;geoff@plainfigures.com.Bruno
2、Ćorić,UniversityofSplit,FacultyofEconomics,DepartmentofEconomics,MaticeHrvatske31,21000Split,Croatia.AbstractThetradeeffectsofexchangeratevariabilityhavebeenanissueininternationaleconomicsforthepast30years.Thecontributionofthispaperistoapplymeta-regression
3、analysis(MRA)totheempiricalliterature.Onaverage,exchangeratevariabilityexertsanegativeeffectoninternationaltrade.YetMRAconfirmstheviewthatthisresultishighlyconditional,byidentifyingfactorsthathelptoexplainwhyestimatedtradeeffectsvaryfromsignificantlynegati
4、vetosignificantlypositive.MRAevidenceonthepronouncedheterogeneityoftheempiricalfindingsmaybeinstructiveforpolicy:first,byestablishingthataveragetradeeffectsarenotsufficientlyrobusttogeneraliseacrosscountries;and,second,bysuggestingtheimportanceofhedgingopp
5、ortunities-henceoffinancialdevelopment-fortradepromotion.ForthepracticeofMRA,wemakeacaseforcheckingtherobustnessofresultswithrespecttoestimationtechnique,modelspecificationandsample.RunningTitle:Meta-regressionanalysisofthetradeeffectsofexchangeratevariabi
6、lity361IntroductionSincetheonsetofgeneralizedfloating,therehasbeenextensivetheoreticalandempiricalinvestigationintotheeffectsofexchangeratevariabilityoninternationaltrade.Thisissuehasalsobeenprominentinpolicydebate.Thereisaconsensusthatexchangeratemovement
7、scannotbeanticipatedand,hence,createuncertaintyininternationaltrade.However,theliteraturegivesnosuchclearguidanceonthetradeeffectsofexchangeratevariabilityanduncertainty.Gros(1987),DhananiandGroves(2001),DeGrauwe(1988)andDellasandZilberfarb(1993)developmod
8、elsinwhichexchangeratevariabilitymayhaveeitherapositiveoranegativeimpactontrade.Unfortunately,theambiguousimplicationsofthetheoreticalliteraturearenotresolvedbytheempiricalliterature.Theconclusionsfromthe58st
