人民币汇率变动对中国国际收支影响实证的分析

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1、AbstractARerChinajoiningWT0in2001，thedegreeofeconomicopeninghasbeenenlargedandtheintemationaltradehasincreasedrapidly．China’sforeignexchangereserveshaVedrasticalIyincreasedowingtotheincreaseofsu印lusofintemationalpaymentbalance，whichduetothe“doublefaVorablebalance”betweenthecu

2、rrentaccountandthecapital·6nancialaccount．TheappreciationPressureofRMBbecameveryhigh．Arefo啪ofRMBexchangeratemechanismwascalledbyChinesegoVemmentinJuly，2005inordertoreleasethehighpressure．ThereisnoanychangeoncullrentstatusuntilnoW．Therefore，exploringtheimpactofRMBexchangeratec

3、hangesontheintemationalbalanceofpaymentshastheimponantpracticalsignmcance．TheexchangerateisanimportantVariabledeteminingtheintemationalbalanceofpayments．Butwhatkindofrelationshipbetweenthem，needtobeexplainedthroughtheempiricalanalysis．HereusescointegrationandGrangercausalityt

4、esttoanalyzewhetherornotthereisastableequilibriumrelationbetweenintemationalbalanceofpaymentsandexchangerate．Baseontheforeignanddomesticliteraturesumm撕zation，thispaperwillanalyzetheRMBexchangeratee艉ctsonchina’sintemationalpaymentbalance，f’ocusingonbalanceoftradeofChinaandcapi

5、talno、Ⅳ．TheestimationresultssuggestthatlaginfluenceexistsbetweentheactualappreciationofRiMBandtheChina’stradesu印lus．TheappreciationOfR．MBhasinnuenceonthejnnowofbothlong-ten：ncapitalandshort·te肌capital．SothemoderateandsteadyappreciationofRMBisnecessary-Inthe、^，aywecanaVoidseri

6、ouslynegatiVeaf．fectionsoneconomicdeVelopmentspeedandeconomicstmctureofourcountry．Maimainacenainneg“veinterestma唱inbet、VeenChinaandUSAundertheanticipationoftheI乇MBappreciationwillbenefitthereleaseofpressure1jrominnowofarbitragecapital．PositiVeinfluencewillbeenla唱edonChineseec

7、onomybypolicytostimulateconsumptionandreducesaVingrate．KeyWords：RMBexchangerate；tradesurplus；capitalflow目录mIllll⋯⋯1111l删⋯⋯1111lⅧlY2285268摘要⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．．IAbstract⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．II第l章绪论⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．11．1选题的背景和意义⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯

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