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1、本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格,请务必阅读最后一页目录一、行业宏观数据汇总3二、销售:单月增速转正,全年再创历史新高4三、投资:持续趋稳,韧性仍足6四、资金:增速下滑,关注偿债高峰期风险7五、房价:结构化因素导致新房房价上涨8六、板块表现:估值低位9七、投资建议9八、风险提示10插图目录11表格目录11本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格,请务必阅读最后一页一、行业宏观数据汇总2018年1-12月,商品房销售面积171,654万平方米,再创历史新高,同比增长1.3%,增速比1-11月回落0.1个百分点。其中,住宅销售面积增长2.2%,办公楼销售面积增长-
2、8.3%,商业营业用房销售面积增长-6.8%。商品房销售额149,973亿元,同比增长12.2%,比1-11月份提高0.1百分点,比上年回落1.5个百分点。其中,住宅销售额增长14.7%,办公楼销售额增长-2.6%,商业营业用房销售额增长0.7%。2018年1-12月,全国房地产开发投资完成额120,264亿元,同比名义增长9.5%,增速比1-11月份回落0.2个百分点,比上年同期提高2.5个百分点。其中,住宅投资85,192亿元,增长13.4%,比1-11月份回落0.2个百分点,比上年提高4个百分点。住宅投资占房地产开发投资的比重为70.8%。表
3、1:房地产行业宏观数据汇总商品房销售面积(万平米)其中:住宅办公楼商业营业用房销售商品房销售金额(亿元)其中:住宅办公楼商业营业用房148,604100.0%1.4%128,71486.6%2.1%3,6062.4%-11.1%10,1186.8%-5.1%129,508100.0%12.1%109,94784.9%14.8%5,1364.0%-6.4%11,0648.5%-0.2%-0.8-0.7-0.6-2.3-0.4-0.20.1-1.9171,654100.0%1.3%147,92986.2%2.2%4,3632.5%-8.3%11,971
4、7.0%-6.8%149,973100.0%12.2%126,39384.3%14.7%6,2774.2%-2.6%13,3498.9%0.7%-0.10.12.8-70.1-0.13.80.915,48712.2%-5.1%23,05048.8%0.9%13,28211.1%-3.7%19,21544.7%2.5%35416.4%-15.9%757114.1%7.8%1,08016.4%-20.8%1,85371.6%-14.7%13,59415.4%8.8%20,46550.5%12.3%11,59216.0%13.3%16,44641.9%1
5、3.6%49820.3%-4.7%1,141129.1%19.3%1,18318.4%-13.6%2,28593.1%5.4%土地成交价款(亿元)房企到位资金(亿元)其中:国内贷款利用外资资金自筹资金定金及预收款个人按揭贷款13,746100.0%20.150,077100.0%7.6%21,80714.5%-3.7%1020.1%-30.4%50,61933.7%10.0%49,55133.0%15.7%21,42014.3%-0.9%-0.4-0.11.55.2-0.8-0.60.016,102100.0%18.0165,963100.0%6.
6、4%24,00514.5%-4.9%1080.1%-35.8%55,83133.6%9.7%55,41833.4%13.8%23,70614.3%-0.8%2-1.2-1.2-5.4-0.3-1.90.12,05114.8%17.8%2,35614.8%6.7%14,4415.0%6.6%15,88610.0%-4.1%2,08123.5%12.4%2,1985.6%-15.2%22-40.9%-0.9%6-74.1%-73.2%5,1063.9%4.0%5,2122.1%6.9%4,608-1.6%10.1%5,86727.3%-0.2%2,01
7、26.7%-0.7%2,28613.6%-0.4%-2.%2%10,7580.9%9.3%10,181-5.4%8.2%7,6571.2%12.6%7,165-6.4%10.6%5111.8%-11.8%57312.2%-4.3%1,180-4.6%-11.6%1,111-5.8%-8.8%20,14024.5%21.7%20,4471.5%20.5%14,66127.9%22.5%14,8171.1%23.4%5811.0%9.6%561-3.5%-15.8%1,8504.2%13.8%2,0299.7%10.1%3,36329.5%8.1%3,
8、81613.5%13.9%-0.2-0.20.700.40.4-81.2-0.1120,264100.0%9.5%85,1