住房抵押贷款违约风险影响因素地研究——以证券化产品为例

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1、AbstractSinceChinaConstructionBankfirstissuedresidentialmortgageloansin1992，residentialmortgageloansofferedbycommercialbankshavebecomethemostimportantfinancingmethodforpeoplewhowhattopurchasehouses．Rightnow,residentialmortgageloanshavebeenincreasingrapidlyataspeedof30％

2、to40％annually．Althoughresidentialmortgageloansarelessriskierthancorporateloans，thetermofresidentialmortgageloansisrelativelylonger，SOdoesthetimeofriskexposing．Accordingtointernationalstandard，itisverydangerousforcitizenstouse1／3oftheirmonthlyincomeonhouseconsumption．Bu

3、tstatisticssuggestthatmostofChinesepeoplehaveexceededtheinternationalstandardandhavebeenoverwhelmed．Asmarketeconomydeepensandindustrystructureshit,s，unemploymentincreaseandincomeexpectationfluctuationareinevitable．Thepotentialdefaultphenomenonduringtheprolongedtermofth

4、eloanshasraisedconcernsamongbankingindustryinsiders．Whileacademicshavenotdoneenoughresearchonresidentialmortgageloandefaults，withmostoftheresearchfocusingonprimarymarketandloanfactors．Thesubprimemortgagecrisissweepingworldwidefinancialmarketsinceearly2007hasdemonstrate

5、dtheimportanceofeconomicfactorsincrisistransmission．Thus，wedecidetoshifttheresearchareafromprimarymarkettosecondarymarket(MBS)，andfromloanperspectivetoeconomicperspectiveInlightofthis．wewillbaseourresearchonJianYuan2005—1，thefirstMBSproductinChinaissuedbyChinaConstruct

6、ionBank，mainlyfocusonfactorsinfluencingMBSdefaultrisks，trytoidentitythemainfactorsaffectingmortgageloandefaultrisksinordertoofferpolicyguidanceforcommercialbanksconcerningthepreventionofmortgageloandefaultrisks．KeyWords：ResidentialMortgageLoan；MortgageBackedSecurities；

7、DefaultRisk；JianYuan2005—1目录摘要⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯JAbstract⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．．，．．⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．．．．．．II第1章绪论⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯11．1研究背景⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯11．1．1国际背景⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯11．1．2国内背景⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯11．2研究目的和意义⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯

8、⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯21．3研究内容、方法和研究结构⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯41．3．1研究结构⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯41

9、3．2研究方法⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯51．4本文的主要贡献⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯