武汉房地产泡沫实证分析的的研究 (1)

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1、AbstractSince2000，therealestatemarketisundergoinganewroundofprosperityinⅥ，uhart．hl2000．WuhanCityrealestatemarketinrealestatedevelopmentatotalof868enterpriseswitharegisteredcapitalof22．5billionyuan，thepercapitaresidentialbuildingareaof8．5squaremeters，residentialaveragepr

2、icefor2，022yuall／mz"Thecity’Srealestateinvestment3．081billionyuallis7．14％ofthetotalfixedassetsinvestment(43．125billionyuan)and2．55％ofGDP(120．684billionyuan)．In2000，thecompletionofcommodityresidentialareais3．7731millionsquaremeters、thesalesareaof3．7414millionsquaremeters

3、，thepercapitadisposableincomeof6，759yuan．thepriceearningsratioof8．48．hl2007．WuhanCityrealestatemarketinrealestatedevelopmententerprisesof1932atalllevels．thepercapitaresidentialconstructionareaof28．25squaremetersforresidentialaveragepricefor5．663yuan／∥．Thecity’Srealestat

4、einvestmentfor33．456billionyuanis23．6％ofthetotalinvestmentinfixedassets(141．763billionyuall)and10．65％ofGDP(314．1billionyuan)．In2007，completionofgoodsresidentialareais8．1162millionsquaremeters。sales10．6989millionsquaremeters，thepercapitadisposableincome：14，527yuan，thepri

5、ceearningsratioof12．14．Risingrealestateprices，from2000，theaveragepriceofresidentialbreakjust2，000yuan／mz，tothe2005breakthrou时lin3000yuan／m‘，andthento2007breakthroughinvain5，000yuan／m‘．Atthesametime，thepurchaseofasubstantialincreaseininvestment．commercialrealestateloansa

6、ccountedforall血enewproportionofnewloansalsorising，up76percents．WuhanCityonthemarketifthereistherealestatemarketbubblealSOhadasharpdebate，somepeoplethinkthatbubbledoesnotexistbecausethecurrentmarketsupplyanddemandenough，whileothersfeelthatrealestatepriceshaveexceededthea

7、ctualpurchasingpowerofthebubbleseriousinthecurrentmarket．Basedonthisissueasthestartingpoint，theuseofeconometricmodelscurrentlyiIlWuhartCityjudgewhetllertherealestatemarketbubbleandthetestmodelofthebubblemeasuretherealestatemarketbubbleofthesize．Andwhetherthebubblebursto

8、nthedangersofthecausesofthebubbleandgovemanceissuesempiricalanalysis．Thisarticleholdsthatthecurrentrealestatem