转轨体制下中国产能过剩的形成机制的研究

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1、楚地发现这些行业在产能过剩严重的三个时期的表现及特点。接着根据其形成机制对各省市的产能利用率及各个影响因素进行实证研究．利用随机效应的面板数据进行分析，并证明了地方政府的干预以及国有企业的影响作用，中央政府的作用虽然没有得到直接的检验，但也通过地方政府的行为间接的得到了证明。在理论与实证分析结论的基础上，提出对产能过剩治理的相关政策分别是：完善产业政策及退出机制；完善财政税收制度和官员晋升考核制度，规范地方政府行为；加快产权制度以及国有企业改革；推进要素交易及资金信贷体系市场化。关键字：转轨体制产能过剩产能利用率IIIAbstractSince1997，thefirstti

2、methatovercapacitywasputforwardinChina；overcapacityhasplaguedtheeconomicgrowth．Withthefrequencyofoccurrenceandgeneralcharacteristics，overcapacityinChinaissignificantlydifferentfromothercountries．Apparently,theliteraturesabroad，whichconsideredtheimperfectionofmarketledtoovercapacity,arediff

3、iculttoclearlyexplainthesituationinChina．Somedomesticliteraturesfocusedthereasonsofspecialsystem，buttheyaremostlylimitedtoqualimtiveanalysis．Thusthepointofthispaperisquantitativemethodsonthebasisofqualitativeanalysis，andthentheformationmechanismofover-capacityintheexistingsystemcanbemorecl

4、earlydrawn．OvercapacityhasbeenaccompaniedwithChina’Seconomicgrowth，sincetheearly1990s．Underthecommoninfluenceofgovernmentandmarket，thedegreeofexcessisdifferent．Themoreseriousperiodsarethe1990s，from2002to2006and2008whentheeconomiccrisishappenedtonOW．Thethreetimesofovercapacityhavetheirownch

5、aracteristicsandspecialreasons，buttheyallhappenedintheperiodofhigheconomicgrowth，andhaveledtothedeclineofprofitmargininindustries．SoitisobvioustOfindthethreecommonreasons：Theindustrialpoliciesformulatedbycentralgovernmenthasadirecteffecttotheovercapacity；localgovernmentaffectstheindustrial

6、layoutandproductionlevelbythecontroloflocaleconomy；propertyrightsandmanagementsystemofstate-ownedenterprisesweakentheroleofthemarket．Asthemainrolesinthecommonreasonsiscentralgovernment，localgovernmentandstate—ownedenterprises，thispaperestablishestwodecisionmodelsofnormalenterprisesandstate

7、·ownedenterprisestoattainthefinalequilibriumofcapacity．CentralgovernmenLlocalgovernmentandnormalenterprisesinteractwitheachotherinthedecisionmodelofnormalenterprise．Theprocessbeginsfromtheindustrialpoliciesformulatedbycentralgovernment．Thenlocalgovernmentsmake