m08a1zbh-aninconvenienttruth-2008国际数学建模竞赛a题获奖合集

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1、“AnInconvenientTruth”Atinychangeininitialvaluecouldmeanhugedifferenceinresult;alittleriseintemperaturecouldmeanhorribledisasterinconsequences.Afteranalyzingmanyrelatedworks，wecrosstheravelmentofhowprecisetherisingtemperatureandsealevelandfocusmainlyoneffectswithdifferentaspects.Aninc

2、onvenienttruthcomesWcdivideourworkinfourparts:Prediction—Weadaptthedataofpredictedincreasedtemperatureasarangeof1.2-2.3°Cbasedondifferentemissionscenariosinnext50years.—UsingDegree-DayModelandtemperaturerecordofGreenland，wccomputethepredictedsealevelriserange(0.41〜0.43feetin2020;0.50

3、〜0.59feetin2030;0.68〜0.98feetin2040;0.93〜1.6feetin2050;1.44〜2.75feetin2060).Effects—UsingMalcolm'sRetreatCoastLineEquationbasedonrelationshipbetweenretreatofcoastlineandrisingsealevelinhistory,wepredicttheretreatcoastlinerangeineverytenyears.Themaximumby2060mayreach543.44feet.—Byusin

4、gGhyben-HerzbergEquation,wepredicttheincreasingdistancebetweengroundandgroundwaterlevelrangeineverytenyearswithrisingsealevel.By2060,thedepthmaycometoarangeof17.524〜33.528meters.—WepredictreductionofhurricanereturnyearsforplacessurroundFloridabasedonExperimentalModels.E.g.TheWilmawit

5、hreturnperiodof78ywillonlyreturnin5〜lOyinMiami-DadeCountyby2060.—Facingrisingsealevelandmoreserioushurricane，wepredictthedamagecostincountiesalongtheFloridacoastlinebasedonExperimentalEquationsfordifferentcounties’relationshipbetweenrisingsealevelandhurricanereturnperiod.E.g.TheMonro

6、eCountywillloss105MillionDollarsextracostby2060.—Wcalsopredictedpropertyatriskduetorisingsealevelandhurricane.E.g.MonroeCountywillhave5428.68milliondollarspropertiesatriskby2060.—Wcpayspecialattentiontothemctropolitan-Miami.WcgivethoseimportantplaceslocatedinMiamiwhichwillmostlikelyf

7、acingflood.Response—Wcpreparedactionstoreducetherisingtemperaturetothelowestscenarios—WegivecertainplanstodealwiththespecificeffectsonFlorida.DataDiscussionWealsogiveacarefuldiscussionforeverydataweuseincludingthereliability，stability,advantage，disadvantage，andetc.Finallywccometothec

8、onclusion:th