2008年国际大学生数学建模竞赛a题获奖-2008国际数学建模竞赛a题获奖合集

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1、TableofContentsTableofContents1Definingtheproblem5II.Methods6MathematicallyModelingSeaLevelRise6TemperatureData7TheIceSheet8MassBalance-Accumulation9MassBalance-Ablation10MassBalanceandSeaLevelRise13ThermalExpansion13Localization14III.Results17OutputSeaLevelRiseData17SubmersionSimulationResults19IV.

2、DiscussionandConclusion23V.Recommendations26References28AppendixASeaLevelRiseSimulationScript29AppendixBTopologicalRasterMatrixCreationScript33AppendixCSubmersionSimulationScript35I.IntroductionStrongevidenceofaglobalwarmingtrendexists，andpowerfulmodelshavebeencreatedtoestimatefutureclimate.Temperat

3、ureshaveincreasedbyabout0.5°Coverthelast15years,andglobaltemperatureisatitshighestlevelinthepastmillennium•Althoughthewarmingtrendisquiteevident，theconsequencesofsuchwidescaleclimatechangearestillpoorlyunderstood.Oneofthemost-fearedconsequencesofglobalwarmingissealevelrise，andforgoodreason.TOPEX/Pos

4、eidonsatellitealtimeterindicatesthatsealevelsrose3.2土0.2mmannuallyduring1993-1998.Indeed，Titusetalestimatethata1meterriseinsealevelscouldcause$270-475billionindamagesintheUnitedStatesalone.Anumberofcomplexfactorsunderliesealevelrise.Thermalexpansionofwaterduetotemperaturechangeshaslongbeenimplicated

5、asthemajorcomponentofsealevelrise;however，recentstudieshaveshownthatthermalexpansionalonecannotaccountforamajorityoftheobservedincreases.Massbalanceoflargeicesheets，inparticulartheGreenlandIceSheet，isnowbelievedtoplayamajorroleinsealevel.Themassbalanceiscontrolledbytwomajorprocesses，accumulation(inf

6、luxoficetothesheet)andablation(lossoficefromthesheet).Accumulationisprimarilytheresultofsnowfall;ablationisaresultofsublimationandmelting.Contrarytopopularbelief，however,floatingicedoesnotplayasignificantroleinsealevelrise.ByArchimedes’Principle，thevolumeincreaseJKofabodyofwaterwithdensitypoceanduet

7、omeltingoffloatingiceofweightW(assumedtobefreshwater，withliquiddensity咖)isgivenbyThedensityofseawaterisapproximately1024.8kg/m3;themassoftheArcticseaiceisapproximately2x1013kg.Thus，thevolumechangeifal