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1、cGlobalResearch15November2018EquitiesChinaPropertySector–ARealEstateChinaDeepdiveintoChinapropertytrendsandcyclesToomuchfocusonSTrisksanduncertaintiesbutoverlookedLTprospectsTheaveragevaluationofA-sharedevelopers(6.2x2019EPE,54%NAVdiscount)sitsatthelowendoftheirh
2、istoricalrange,whichreflectsanuncertainindustrygrowthoutlookandnear-termpolicyconcerns,inourview.Weexaminelong-termprospectsandshort-termfluctuationsbylookingatquantitativemodelling,industrydriversandpreviouscycles.Wealsozoominonkeyfactorsshapingdevelopers'long-t
3、ermcompetitiveness.Inourview,Poly,VankeandCMShaveasustainableedgeandarebetterpositionedinthecurrentmini-cycle,andwehaveBuyratingsonallthree.Analysisonlong-termstructuralopportunitiesandnear-termscenariosBasedonindustrydriversandourquantitativemodel,wethinkoverall
4、housingdemandgrowthwillmoderateinthenext10years,albeitwithstructuralgrowthhotspots.Webelievethenextdecade'sbestopportunitiescouldbeinupgradedemandandChina'scoreurbanclusters,especiallyTraditionalThree(Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,YangtzeRiverDelta,GreaterBay)andEmerging
5、Four.Intheshortterm,wethinkcreditandindustrypolicieswerebigfactorsinthepastmini-cyclesandexpectthecurrentpolicytobesustained.Inthiscase,largeSOEswithcontrolledleverage,reasonablelandbankandhightier-2cityexposurecouldstandout.Wealsoexamineothernear-termscenarios.K
6、eystosuccess:Incentives,governance,financing,landacquisitionAtthestocklevel,weidentifyincentives,corporategovernance,financingandlandacquisitionskillasfactorsshapingcompetitiveness.Privatedevelopershavebetterexecution&incentivemechanisms(Evergrande,CGH,etc.),whil
7、eSOEsaresuperiorinfinancing(Poly,CMS,etc.).Also,developers'long-termgrowthispositivelycorrelatedwiththeeffectivenessofitslandpurchasingstrategy.OurweightedscoringshowsVanke,PolyandCMSasthemostcompetitiveamongtheA-sharedeveloperswecover.Toppicks:Poly/Vanke/CMS;wel
8、lpositionedforbothmega-trends&mini-cyclesWethinksectorvaluation(2019EPE/NAVdiscount1.2/2.0SDbelowthehistoricalmean)under-priceslong-termstructuralopportunities
