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1、ECONOMICS
2、EMERGINGMARKETSKEYMESSAGESTheFinanceMinistryreleasedthedraftofataxreformbillthatisexpectedtoreducetheburdenoncompanies,whileeliminatingexemptionsonvariousgoodsandservices.Whileconfidencecouldtakeatollduringtheearlystagesofimplementationofthetaxreformbill,netbalanceforgrowthshouldb
3、epositive.Inflationaryrisksarelikelytobemitigatedinthefinalversion,tomakebasicstaplesastaxexempt.Weviewthedraftasapositivesteptowardslesseningdistortionsinthetaxcodeandfiscalstability,andasconsistentwithbudgetbalancetargets.AlthoughriskstothefiscaloutlookcouldariseiftheCongressreintroducesm
4、anyoftheexemptionseliminatedfromthedraft,wedon’texpectchangestothecountry’sratingsoutlook.Colombia’staxreform:Short-termpains,long-termgainsImpactonmedium-termgrowthshouldbepositive,inourview.Similartothetaxreformof2016,whichraisedtheVATby3pp,theeliminationofmostexemptionscouldtemporarilyde
5、ntconfidence,hurtingconsumptioninQ12019.However,giventhe3ppand2ppcutsplannedforthestandardcorporateandvalue-addedtaxrates,respectively,plusataxbreakforcapitalgoods,weseenetgains.Thegovernmentalsoannouncedthecreationofastabilisationfundfromoilrevenues.Thisisexpectedtoreducecapitalexpenditure
6、sbythecentralgovernment,whichwerepartlysustainedbythosereceipts.Contrarytoinitialexpectations,thefulltextdoesnotcontainanyvalue-addedtax(VAT)exemptionforfoodstaples.However,exemptionshavebeenmadeforhealthcare,publicservices,leases,andLPgas.WeestimatethistobringdownthetotalitemsexemptfromVAT
7、to20%fromWeviewthereformsproposalaspositive.Reducingthetaxburdenoncompaniesseemswarranted,asColombiahasthehighesteffectivecorporatetaxrateamongOECDcountries–closeto60%.Thegovernmentwantstoreduceitby12ppuntil2022andisaimingfor1.1ppofGDPofadditionalrevenuein2019outofthebill.Thetweaksdon’tseem
8、tothreatenfiscaltargets,whichweexpecttobefulfilledinthecomingyears(seeColombia-Taxreformneeded,butneartermseemssafe).Ifthewidertaxablebasesurvives,wemayactuallyseeastrengtheningofthefiscalframeworkinthemediumterm,bringingmorestability.Fig.1:CPIbasketcomp
