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1、MMAugust8,201809:05PMGMTICICIBankFromImpairedtoGrowth;TopPickinAsiaFinancialsInthenexttwoyears,wethinkICICIstockcoulddoubleasitmovesfromimpairedtonormalisedtogrowth.Itislikelytobevolatilefor2-3quarters,buttherisk-rewardisfavorablewithahighmarginofsafetya
2、t1.2xF20ecoreBVand~5xF20ecorePPoP.MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.Investorsshouldco
3、nsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,mayn
4、otbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoNASD/NYSErestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.ICICIBankFromImpairedtoGrowth;ITopPickinAsiaFinancialsnthenexttwoyears,wethink
5、ICICIstockcoulddoubleasitmovesfromimpairedtonormalisedtogrowth.Itislikelytobevolatilefor2-3quarters,buttherisk-rewardisfavorablewithahighmarginofsafetyat1.2xF20ecoreBVand~5xF20ecorePPoP.StockRatingIndustryViewPriceTargetOverweightAttractiveRs460.00WHAT’
6、SCHANGEDICICIBankFromToPriceTargetRs425.00Rs460.00PriceTargetUS$13.00US$13.50ICICIisastockwherethenarrativecouldmovefromNPLpressuretogrowthfairlyquickly:WhenbanksemergefromNPLproblems,theyoftenenjoyastrongre-rating.How-ever,thisrecoveryusuallyfadesasPPo
7、Psuffersfromsubsequentriskaversion.ICICI,despiteNPLproblems,haskeptimprovingitsretailfranchise.Thisisdrivinggoodunderlyingearningsprogression.AswemoveintoF2020,weexpectsharplylowercreditcostsandcorePPoPgrowthat>20%.WeexpectROEof14-15%inF20-21.Thiscouldim
8、plyasubstantialre-ratingoverarelativelyshortperiod–F2020ecorePPoPisnowjust5x.Upsidelikelytobestructural:Unlikepastcycles,whentheliabilitysideofICICI'sbalancesheetwasweak,itisnowcomparabletobestinclass.TheCASAratiois50%andr
