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1、Poland:InflationWatchJune2018MichalDybula,ChiefEconomistCentral&EasternEuropeMariuszKapuscinski,EconomistBankBGŻBNPParibasSA27June2018PolandInflationWatch§TheCentralStatisticsOfficewillpublishitsflashestimateofJuneinflationon2July.§WeestimatethatinJune,CPIinflationwillhaveincreasedto2.2%y/y,o
2、nhigherannualfuelpricegrowthandareboundincoreinflation.§However,wehavereviseddownourexpectedCPIinflationpathforthelonger-run,asoilpricefutureshavegenerallydecreased,giventhepledgeattheOPEC-Russiasummittoincreaseoutputby0.6-1.0mlnbarrelsaday.§InMay,CPIinflationinPolandsurprisedtothedownside,in
3、creasingto1.7%y/yfrom1.6%y/yamonthearlier.Ourforecastandconsensusindicatedanincreaseto1.9%y/y.§Anaccelerationinfuelpricegrowthadded0.4pptoCPIinflation,butthiswaspartlycompensatedbylowercontributionsoffoodandnon-alcoholicbeverages(-0.25pp)andcoreinflation(-0.05pp).§CoreinflationhashalvedsinceJ
4、anuary,whenitreachedalocalpeakof1.0%y/y.ItsdeclineinMayfrom0.6%to0.5%y/ywasdrivenmainlybybaseeffectsfromtelecommunicationprices.§WenolongerexpecttheCPItohittheNationalBankofPoland’stargetthisyear,butweexpectittoriseabove2.5%bytheendofQ12019.27June20183OurPolishinflationforecastsCPI(%m/m)CPI(%
5、y/y)Core(%y/y)Food(%y/y)Fuel(%y/y)Energy(%y/y)PPI(%y/y)Jan-180.31.91.04.8-1.01.70.2Feb-18-0.21.40.83.4-2.81.8-0.1Mar-18-0.11.30.73.7-2.31.70.5Apr-180.51.60.64.11.41.61.0May-180.21.70.53.09.21.72.8Jun-180.12.20.63.014.31.63.6Jul-180.02.30.82.916.01.63.1Aug-18-0.22.31.02.912.91.42.9Sep-180.22.1
6、1.02.98.91.62.6Oct-180.52.11.12.58.41.82.6Nov-180.31.91.22.05.22.52.8Dec-180.32.01.32.25.82.53.3Jan-190.32.01.42.34.82.43.4Feb-190.22.41.63.16.32.53.8Mar-190.22.71.93.47.12.83.3Apr-190.52.72.03.34.02.83.2May-190.12.62.33.7-1.72.82.2Jun-190.22.72.43.8-2.32.81.9Jul-190.02.72.53.5-2.22.82.2Aug-1
7、9-0.12.82.53.6-1.92.72.2Sep-190.22.72.63.5-1.92.82.2Oct-190.52.72.63.5-1.92.82.2Nov-190.32.72.73.4-1.93.02.2Dec-190.32.72.73.3-1.93.02.2Source:GUS,NBP,ICE,BGZBNPParibas,Macrobond;shadedareamarksforecastsUS,robonNPParSource:GNBP,Macd,BGZBibasS
