巴西-投资策略-巴西：地方养老基金增加股权分配

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1、Brazil:Pickupinnon-residentflows;localpensionfundsincreasingequityallocationThisdocumenthasbeenproducedby:BancoBNPParibasBrasilS.A.nNon-residents’shareofBrazilianlocalpublicdebtincreasedtoBRL431bn(~USD111bn),asofJune2018.Atcurrentlevels,non-residentsholdthee

2、quivalentof11.9%ofBrazil’stotalpublicdebt.Inflowsfromnon-residentsamountedtoBRL15.4bn(~USD4.4bn)inQ2.n(NEW!)Accordingtoourcalculations,currentpublicdebtexposurefornominalratesisUSD66.8mnDV01anditsmonthlydecayisUSD2.2mn.Publicdebtexposureforrealrates(inflation-

3、linkedbonds)isestimatedatUSD180mnDV01.n(NEW!)WestarttotracktheholdingsofBrazilianprivatepensionfunds(EFPC).TheMarch2018reportshowedthattheyincreasedtheirshareofinvestmentinbothfixedincomeandequities.DeclineinforeignshareofBrazil’slocaldebtThelatestdatareleased

4、bytheMinistryofFinanceshowsnon-residents’shareofBrazilianlocalpublicdebtincreasedtoBRL431bn(~USD111bn)asofJune2018.Inflowsfromnon-residentsamountedtoBRL15.4bn(~USD4.4bn)inthelastquarter.Table1,Charts1-4:BreakdownofpublicdebtBRL(bn)DomesticPublicDebtJun-183,607

5、%ofTotalq/q%3%y/y%12%Mar-183,507%ofTotalJun-173,234%ofTotalFinancialInstitutions81522.6%4%10%78522.4%74323.0%LocalFunds95726.5%-7%25%1,02529.2%76323.6%PensionFunds90125.0%13%9%80022.8%82525.5%Non-residents43111.9%4%3%41511.8%41712.9%GovernmentInstitutions1584.

6、4%3%1%1544.4%1574.8%InsuranceCompanies1403.9%4%-5%1353.9%1474.6%Others2065.7%6%14%1945.5%1825.6%PublicDebtHoldingsPublicDebtHoldingsbyForeigners(%)3.9%5.7%4.4%11.9%25.0%22.6%26.5%FinancialInstitutionsLocalFundsPensionFundsNon-residentsGovernmentInstitutionsI

7、nsuranceCompaniesOthersFixed-ratecouponbonds(NTN-F)3.7%0.7%6.9%45.9%42.8%Fixed-ratebulletbonds(LTN)Inflation-linkedbonds(NTN-B)Floating-rateBondsOthers550Foreigners'participationinBrazilianlocaldebt(BRLbn)Foreigners'participationinBrazilianlocaldebt(%,RHS)450

8、35025020%17%14%11%302010-(10)(20)MonthlyForeigners'Flows(BRL,bn)Sep-13Jun-14Mar-15Dec-15Sep-16Jun-17Mar-18Sep-13May-14Jan-15Sep-15May-16Jan-17Sep-17May-18LATINAMERICASTRATEGYPl