development and transition：idea, strategy, and viability

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1、DevelopmentandTransition：Idea,Strategy,andViabilityNO.E8><#004699'>2007007<#004699'>2007-11DevelopmentandTransition:Idea,Strategy,andViability*JustinYifuLinCCER,PekingUniversityNO.E<#004699'>2007007November<#004699'>2007*Preliminarydraftpreparedforthe

2、MarshallLecturesofCambridgeUniversityonOctober31-November1,<#004699'>2007.Commentsaremostwelcome;pleasesendcorrespondencetoJustinlin@ccer.pku.edu.cn.CambridgeUniversityMarshallLecturesDevelopmentandTransition:Idea,Strategy,andViabilityByJustinYifuLino

3、nOctober31-November1,<#004699'>2007.(Preliminarydraft)Commentsaremostwelcome;pleasesendcorrespondencetoJustinlin@ccer.pku.edu.cn1IDevelopment,TransitionandDivergenceTheconsequencesforhumanwelfareinvolvedinquestionslikethesearesimplystaggering:Onceones

4、tartstothinkaboutthem,itishardtothinkaboutanythingelse.—RobertE.Lucas,Jr.(1988)WhenIwas7>

5、ofessorLucas’stepstogivethedistinguishedLecturestwenty-twoyearslater.IreturnedtoChinain1987aftergraduatingfromtheUniversityofChicagoanddoingoneyearofpost-doctoralresearchatYaleUniversity’sGrowthCenter.AsthefirstpersontoreturnChinafromabroadwith

6、greeineconomicsafterthereformstartedin1979,IhavehadtheprivilegeofexperiencinginpersonthemiraculouschangesinChina’ssocialandeconomiclifeandcarryingoutinsituresearchofChina’sdevelopmentandtransitioninthepasttwentyyears.Therefore,Iwouldliketousethisoccas

7、iontosharewithyoumyobservationsofdevelopingcountry’seconomicdevelopmentandtransition,basedprimarilyonmyexperiencesinChina.Itis

8、bedfromtimetotimebywarandnaturalcalamities,andafflictedbytheMalthusiantrap.Exceptfortherulingclasses,craftsmenandmerchants—whorepresented