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1、NO.E20070072007-11DevelopmentandTransition:Idea,Strategy,andViability*JustinYifuLinCCER,PekingUniversityNO.E2007007November2007*PreliminarydraftpreparedfortheMarshallLecturesofCambridgeUniversityonOctober31-November1,2007.Commentsaremostwelcome;pleas
2、esendcorrespondencetoJustinlin@ccer.pku.edu.cn.CambridgeUniversityMarshallLecturesDevelopmentandTransition:Idea,Strategy,andViabilityByJustinYifuLinonOctober31-November1,2007.(Preliminarydraft)Commentsaremostwelcome;pleasesendcorrespondencetoJustinli
3、n@ccer.pku.edu.cn1IDevelopment,TransitionandDivergenceTheconsequencesforhumanwelfareinvolvedinquestionslikethesearesimplystaggering:Onceonestartstothinkaboutthem,itishardtothinkaboutanythingelse.—RobertE.Lucas,Jr.(1988)WhenIwasastudentattheUniversity
4、ofChicagointheearly1980s,IhadtheopportunityofobservingProfessorRobertLucaspreparinghis1985MarshallLectures.ItisagreathonorformetofollowProfessorLucas’stepstogivethedistinguishedLecturestwenty-twoyearslater.IreturnedtoChinain1987aftergraduatingfromthe
5、UniversityofChicagoanddoingoneyearofpost-doctoralresearchatYaleUniversity’sGrowthCenter.AsthefirstpersontoreturnChinafromabroadwithaPhDdegreeineconomicsafterthereformstartedin1979,IhavehadtheprivilegeofexperiencinginpersonthemiraculouschangesinChina’
6、ssocialandeconomiclifeandcarryingoutinsituresearchofChina’sdevelopmentandtransitioninthepasttwentyyears.Therefore,Iwouldliketousethisoccasiontosharewithyoumyobservationsofdevelopingcountry’seconomicdevelopmentandtransition,basedprimarilyonmyexperienc
7、esinChina.Itisawell-knownfactthatbeforethemodernera,mostcountrieswereinthedevelopmentstageofarelativelybackwardagriculturaleconomy—disturbedfromtimetotimebywarandnaturalcalamities,andafflictedbytheMalthusiantrap.Exceptfortherulingclasses,craftsmenand
8、merchants—whorepresentedaminorityofthepopulation—mostpeopleworkedinagriculture.Theallocationofresourcesinsuchagrarianeconomieswasclosetooptimalthroughgenerationsofpractice;therefore,thegainsfromimprovementintheallocationofresourcesweresmall(Schultz,1
