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1、华中科技大学博士学位论文中国短期国际资本的流动与管制研究姓名：吴昊申请学位级别：博士专业：西方经济学指导教师：巴曙松20091031
华中科技大学博士学位论文（5）中国应转变外汇管理模式，逐步引入价格管制。在中国现阶段外汇占款过多的情况下，作为一种价格管制工具，URR不失为一种限制短期国际资本流入的可行的办法。（6）中国的短期资本流入管制政策具有一定的独立性且对限制短期资本净流入无效，对短期资本流入应以疏导、发展资本市场吸收、促进对外投资来平衡等作为着力点，实现资本项目自由化是大方向。关键词：短期国际资本资本流动资本管制人民币升值预期II
华中科技大学博士
2、学位论文AbstractBasedonmacroeconomicandinternationaleconomictheory,thisdissertationfirstsummarizespreviousresearchandcalculatesChina'sshort-terminternationalcapitalflows,thenanalyzespossiblewaysofChina'sshort-terminternationalcapitalflows,buildsatheoreticalmodelonthecausesofshort-term
3、internationalcapitalflowsandcarriesonempiricaltest.Afterthat,thisdissertationsystematicallycombsthemanagementsystemandtheevolvementofregulationpolicy,andteststheeffectivenessofChina'scapitalcontrolonshort-terminternationalcapitalflowsbyempiricalanalysis.Finally,basedoncomparativea
4、ndcaseanalysis,thisdissertationproposessuggestiononhowtogoverningshort-terminternationalcapitalflowsinthepaceofcapitalaccountliberalization,providingareferenceforimprovingChina'sefficiencyofshort-terminternationalcapitalflows.Themainconclusionsofthisdissertationareasfollows:(1)Inr
5、ecentyears,short-terminternationalcapitalflowsinChinapresentsvariegate,flowhiding,increasingscale,andvolatiletrend.Ontheinfluenceofthefinancialcrisis,short-terminternationalcapitaloutflowin2008isespeciallyworthattention.(2)ExpectationofRMBexchangerateisthebasicreasonofshort-termin
6、ternationalcapitalflowinChina,whiletheimpactofassetpriceandinterestdifferencialbetweendomesticandforeignmarketsisinsignificant.So,itistopprioritytoguidethearbitrageopportunitiesandarbitrageexpectationstoreduceshort-terminternationalcapitalflows.Theshort-terminternationalcapitalinf
7、lowsmainlyattempttoarbitrageoftheRMBappreciationinthisstage.Thereforeinordertoeffectivelycontroltheillegalinflowsofnon-compliance,ChinashouldperfecttheRMBexchangerateformationmechanism,improvetheRMBexchangerateflexibility,reducepressureonRMBrevaluation,achievetrulytwo-wayfloatinga
8、tareasonableappreciationoftheRMBe
