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1、FortheChinesescaleofanalysisoflocalgovernmentborrowingAbstract:ThesustainabilityoflocalgovernmentborrowingonthescaleofChinaconductedastudy,throughtherationalexpectationsequilibriummodelandthederivationofanalysis,obtainedwhenthegovernmentcannotimprovethecontrolofthefuturecashflow,invest
2、orswillrefusetobuygovernmentbonds,nosizeofthedebtlevelofdefaultriskthantheusualsizeofanacceptablelevelofsustainabilityofdebtislowerbyMonteCarlosimulationmethod?andLiaoningProvinceasanexampleoflocalgovernmentborrowingscaleempiricalanalysisandforecasting.Keywords:localgovernment;debt;fea
3、sibility;debtscaleFirst,thesustainabilityoflocalgovernmenttodeterminethelevelofdebt(A)thebasicconceptsoflocalgovernmentborrowingLocalgovernmentdebtisamatureWesternmarketeconomycountries,thegovernmentfinancingsystemuseditprimarilytomeet17localinfrastructureduringthelocalgovernment,munic
4、ipalfacilitiesinthedemandforconstructionfunds,usuallyithasalocaltaxasaguarantee,Sointhestockmarkethashighcredibilityandbecomeanimportanttoolforlocalgovernmentfinancing.(B)undertherationalexpectationsequilibriummodeloflocalgovernmenttodeterminethesizeofthedebtsustainability1Theproposedr
5、ationalexpectationsequilibriummodelintheory,aslongasthesizeoflocalgovernmentbondsissueddoesnotexceedtheexpectedrevenuesurpluses,suchabondwillbeacontinuingnature,butaccordingtoHeuristicstandardsofcare,localgovernmentbondsandlocalGDPratioshouldbemaintainedat60%orless,inthiscontextthesust
6、ainabilityofpublicdebtonlyifthelocalgovernmentsurplusfundsforfuturemajorflowcontrolDebuperfect,whenthesizeofanapproachingdebtsustainabilityscale,rationalinvestorsbeawareoftheriskofdefaultandthegovernmentrefusedtoextendthedebtforinvestment.Tosolvetherationalexpectationsequilibrium17mode
7、l,weproposetheflowoflocalgovernmentdebtisnotthecriticalpointofthisconcept,thecriticalpointonthebonds,investorswillrefusetopurchase.Also,becausetheflowofgovernmentdebtdoesnotleadtogovernmentdefault,soyoucanThisisacriticalpointasthenewgovernmentdefaultpoint,iethesizeofgovernmentdebtdef