德银-南非-贵金属行业-南非4季度黄金价格更新：涡流稳定

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1、SAGoldsDeutscheBankMarketsResearchSub-SaharanAfricaIndustryDateSouthAfrica12October2017SAGoldsGoldRecommendationChangeSAGold4Q17priceupdate:steadyeddyPatrickMann,CFAPriceoutlookunchanged,upgradeSibanyed/gradeHarmonyonpriceactionResearchAnalystWehavemadenochangesinth

2、isnotetoourgoldpriceforecastsandexpecttheUSD-goldpricetoremainaroundUS$1,250/ozover2017E-2019Ebeforereverting+27-11-775-7282toalong-termrealpriceofUS$1,300/ozby2023(US$1,421/oznominal).WeKeyChangesdowngradeHarmonytoaSellrecommendation(previouslyHold),pricetargetComp

3、anyTargetPriceRatingunchangedatR20psafterac.17%sharepriceincreasesincethebeginningofGFIJ.J53.00to52.00-3Q17leavesuswith19%downside.WeupgradeSibanyetoaHold(previouslyHARJ.J-HoldtoSellSell)ona3%increaseinpricetargettoR15.50psleaves3%downside.OurSGLJ.J15.00to15.50Sellt

4、oHoldfinancialforecastchangesaremodestforallthestocksexceptforSibanye.(lessSource:DeutscheBankthan10%upgradestoFY17EEBITDAforecastsonmarkingthethirdquarterCompaniesfeaturedtospotandFY18Eislargelyunchanged).SibanyeFY17EandFY18EEBITDAGoldFields(GFIJ.J),ZAR54.36Holdfore

5、castsbenefitsfromourupgradestoPGMpricesandare19%and18%higher2016A2017E2018Erespectively.Withaneutraloutlookforthegoldpriceandthesectorat1.1xDBEPS(USD)0.230.260.16PricetoNPVonDBeandspot,weareneutralonthesector.WeretainHoldsonP/E(x)18.415.425.5AngloGoldandGoldFields.EV

6、/EBITA(x)8.68.510.7AngloGoldAshanti(ANGJ.J),ZAR125.66HoldGold:remainingcautiousoverthemedium-termwithcleardownsiderisks2016A2017E2018EapparentDBEPS(USD)0.35-0.190.52InanenvironmentwherecentralbankssignaltaperingofbalancesheetexpansionP/E(x)41.1–17.8(ECB)orbegintoall

7、owbalancesheetsassetstorolloffastheymature(Fed),EV/EBITA(x)12.622.410.5weseeanegativeclimatefortheattractivenessofgoldinvestment.AlthoughHarmony(HARJ.J),ZAR24.83Sellwerecognisedownsideriskthroughthechannelofhigherrealinterestrates,our2017A2018E2019Eforecastsforthegol

8、dpricearerosierthanthismightimplyatUSD1,250/ozinDBEPS(ZAR)2.841.35-1.65Q4-17andUSD1,240/ozin2018.GoldpricesinthisscenarioremainbuttressedP