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大小:2.83 MB
页数:98页
时间:2018-03-11
《瑞信-中国(香港)2018年市场展望:风险回报偏好有利于价值股票》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、14December2017AsiaPacific/ChinaEquityResearchStrategyChina/HK2018MarketOutlookResearchAnalystsECONOMICSANDSTRATEGYVincentChan85221016568vincent.chan@credit-suisse.comRisk-rewardprofilefavoursvaluestocksLiChen85221016645li.chen@credit-suisse.comFigure1:ModestMS
2、CIChinasectorEPSgrowthin2018BinWang20085221016702(%)bin.wang@credit-suisse.com160SanjayJain120656306066880sanjay.jain@credit-suisse.com40YangLuo852210163280yang.luo@credit-suisse.comCharlieChen(40)CUBHTCInPInCMITMEhintilitankeaeleonsuropduonacatenerg8522101616
3、5aiesslthccomDisranertstrStaauriaycharlie.chen@credit-suisse.comarecceyialsplsleThomasChongs8522101616420172018thomas.chong@credit-suisse.comDaveDai,CFASource:theBLOOMBERGPROFESSIONAL™service,ThomsonReutersDatastream85221017358dave.dai@credit-suisse.comWeexpec
4、taflatmarketforMSCIChinaandHangSengIndex,butsomeSamLi85221016775upsideintheH-shareindex,withmoreOldEconomyvaluestocks.sam.li@credit-suisse.com■Policy-induceduncertaintypost19thPartyCongress.WeexpecttheSerenaShaogovernmenttoseriouslytacklesomelong-termstructura
5、lproblemsin852210164382018,likeshadowbanking,publicdebt/de-leveraging,propertypolicy,serena.shao@credit-suisse.comsupplysideandSOEreform.Duringthisprocess,therecouldbesomeEdmondHuang,CFA85221016701unintendedandunfavourableimpactongrowthmomentum.edmond.huang@cr
6、edit-suisse.com■Modesteconomicdeceleration.WeexpectrealGDPgrowthtoslowCharlesZhou,CFAdownfrom6.8%in2017to6.5%in2018,PPIwilldroptoaround3%and85221016177charles.zhou@credit-suisse.comCPIwillpickupto2.5%.ThisgrowthslowdownwouldmainlybedrivenbyKennethFongweakening
7、exportandinfrastructureinvestmentgrowth.Consumptionand85221016395industrialinvestmentgrowthwouldbestable,whilepropertyinvestmentkenneth.kc.fong@credit-suisse.comgrowthcouldpickupduetostronglandsalesin2017.HoraceTse85221017379■Microdominateswhenmacrofades.Earni
8、ngsgrowthmomentuminhorace.tse@credit-suisse.com2018willslowdownalongwithnominalGDPgrowth,inourview.MainlandJianpingChenliquiditynowaccountsforover6%oftheHKmarketturnoverthroughthe8
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