瑞信-中国与香港2018市场策略：风险回报偏好有利于价值股票-中国-股票策略

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1、14December2017AsiaPacific/ChinaEquityResearchStrategyChina/HK2018MarketOutlookResearchAnalystsECONOMICSANDSTRATEGYVincentChan85221016568vincent.chan@credit-suisse.comRisk-rewardprofilefavoursvaluestocksLiChen85221016645li.chen@credit-suisse.comFigure1:ModestMSCIChinasect

2、orEPSgrowthin2018BinWang20085221016702(%)bin.wang@credit-suisse.com160SanjayJain120656306066880sanjay.jain@credit-suisse.com40YangLuo852210163280yang.luo@credit-suisse.comCharlieChen(40)CUBHTCInPInCMITMEhintilitankeaeleonsuropduonacatenerg85221016165aiesslthccomDisranert

3、strStaauriaycharlie.chen@credit-suisse.comarecceyialsplsleThomasChongs8522101616420172018thomas.chong@credit-suisse.comDaveDai,CFASource:theBLOOMBERGPROFESSIONAL™service,ThomsonReutersDatastream85221017358dave.dai@credit-suisse.comWeexpectaflatmarketforMSCIChinaandHangSe

4、ngIndex,butsomeSamLi85221016775upsideintheH-shareindex,withmoreOldEconomyvaluestocks.sam.li@credit-suisse.com■Policy-induceduncertaintypost19thPartyCongress.WeexpecttheSerenaShaogovernmenttoseriouslytacklesomelong-termstructuralproblemsin852210164382018,likeshadowbanking

5、,publicdebt/de-leveraging,propertypolicy,serena.shao@credit-suisse.comsupplysideandSOEreform.Duringthisprocess,therecouldbesomeEdmondHuang,CFA85221016701unintendedandunfavourableimpactongrowthmomentum.edmond.huang@credit-suisse.com■Modesteconomicdeceleration.Weexpectreal

6、GDPgrowthtoslowCharlesZhou,CFAdownfrom6.8%in2017to6.5%in2018,PPIwilldroptoaround3%and85221016177charles.zhou@credit-suisse.comCPIwillpickupto2.5%.ThisgrowthslowdownwouldmainlybedrivenbyKennethFongweakeningexportandinfrastructureinvestmentgrowth.Consumptionand85221016395i

7、ndustrialinvestmentgrowthwouldbestable,whilepropertyinvestmentkenneth.kc.fong@credit-suisse.comgrowthcouldpickupduetostronglandsalesin2017.HoraceTse85221017379■Microdominateswhenmacrofades.Earningsgrowthmomentuminhorace.tse@credit-suisse.com2018willslowdownalongwithnomin

8、alGDPgrowth,inourview.MainlandJianpingChenliquiditynowaccountsforover6%oftheHKmarketturnoverthroughthe8