德银-南非-宏观经济-南非：2018年预算分析——改变正在进行中

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1、DeutscheBankResearchSub-SaharanAfricaEconomicsDateEMSpecial21February2018PublicationSouthAfrica:2018BudgetAnalysis-AChangeisAfootDaneleeMasiaGiventhepoliticalandeconomicbackdrop,thisisacommendablebudget+27-11-775-7267NationalTreasurypresentedamuchimprovedandcrediblebudgettoday.Ins

2、teadofstabilisingat-3.9%ofGDPoverthemediumterm,thefiscaldeficitisnowseenSeanHolmesreducingto-3.6%inFY18/19andFY19/20beforefallingto-3.5%ayearafter.The+27-011-775-7292primarybudgetisseeninbalancebyFY20/21fromapreviousestimateof-0.7%.StefanSwanepoelAfasterconsolidationpathvsthe2017MTB

3、PSwasafunctionofnewtax+27-11-775-7483adjustments,including1%increaseinVAT(R22bninrevenue)andasignificantreductioninexpenditure(R85bn)overthemediumterm.InreturnforhigherLarissaVan-Deventertaxes,aR35bnallocationhasbeenmadetoaffectfee-freetertiaryeducation,+27-11-775-7049whilesocialbud

4、getshavebeenmorethanadequatelyprotected.ThisshouldPatrickMann,CFAsignificantlyreducethepoliticalrisksassociatedwiththeadjustmentintheVAT+27-11-775-7282rate,whichhasdrawncriticismfromoppositionparties.CaronBramwellAllinall,theseadjustmentshaveledtoawelcomedreductioningovernment’s+27

5、-11-7757069borrowingrequirementofsome1%ofGDPoverthemediumterm.Governmentdebtratioalsostabilizesataround56%,wellbelowthe60%forecastasattheMuniraKharva,CFAOctoberMTBPSlastyear.+27-011-775-7433MarcHammoudInthisnotewealsoconsiderthemacroimplicationsforequitiesunderourcoverage.+971-0-4

6、428-3910Insummary,onecanconcludethatSAInchasbeenpreparedforchangesintheLetlotloLenakeVATrate-willingtoacceptthisasatradeoffinreturnforreforms.Giventheencouragingpoliticalaboutturn,wethinkthatbusinessandconsumersentiment+27-11-775-7299maywellremainpositivedespitetheknockonimplicatio

7、nsthatthesechangeshaveespeciallyfortheretailandthevehiclemarket.Inturn,assetgrowthremainsakeyfeaturedrivingourconstructiveviewonbanks,ingeneral.TheBudgetalsodoesnotchallengeourpositiveoutlookontheaffluentinsurancesector.Thebudgetislargelyneutralfortelcomsandmining,wherefocuswillmore

8、squarelyfallontheimplementationof