j.p. 摩根-亚洲-电信行业-电信业对话：亚洲电信行业策略

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1、Completed12Dec201707:14PMHKTDisseminated12Dec201708:43PMHKTAsiaPacificEquityResearch12December2017ClientsshouldcontactrepresentativesandexecutetransactionsthroughaJ.P.Morgansubsidiaryoraffiliateintheirhomejurisdictionunlessgoverninglawpermitsotherwise.N

2、oreallyMa,it'llbebetternextyear...TelcoConversations:AsianTelcoStrategyWelcometoJ.P.Morgan’s“TelcoConversations”,designedtobringyouupAsianTelecommunicationstodatewithourcurrentthinking/forecastingforAsianTelcos.PleaseletusACJamesR.Sullivan,CFAknowifyou

3、wouldlikearegularcallasacomplementtothisreport.(65)6882-2374Whentunnellightsaren’ttrains:TheAsianTelcosectorhasseenmanyfalsejames.r.sullivan@jpmorgan.comdawnsinitsalmostdecade-longunderperformanceoftheregion.Atpresent,asBloombergJPMASULLIVANinmostD

4、ecembers,Streetforecaststellusthatnextyearwillbebetter,thatJ.P.MorganSecuritiesSingaporePrivateLimited/J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)2017formsthebeginningofanewtrendacrossglobaltelcos.ThislightattheLimitedendofthetunnelhasbeenanonrushingtrainmostyear

5、s.MichelleWei,CFAForecastscapitulatingtoreality?Weseequantifiablesignsthatforecastsmay(852)2800-8562finallybefactoringinourviewofthenewrealityforthesector(incrementalmichelle.z.wei@jpmorgan.comrevenuesinsufficienttofundsignificantincrementalcapex/OpEx)

6、.SectorcapexJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limitedappearstohavepeakedinlate2016posta50%increasefrom2008,withmanyVijuKGeorgeoperatorssoundingcorrectly(inourview)cautiousnoteson5Ginvestments.(91-22)6157-35972016ROICestimatesforallmajorTelcogeographiessa

7、wsignificantnegativeviju.k.george@jpmorgan.comrevisionsoverthepastthreeyears(capitulation?),while2017forecastshaveJ.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedbeensteadytorevisedupgloballysaveAfrica.SimilartrendscanbeseenStanleyYangacrossDuPontconstituents.(82-2)758-57

8、12stanley.yang@jpmorgan.comRaysoflight…andmaybethistimetheyarenotlasers!ForecaststabilityJ.P.MorganSecurities(FarEast)Limited,postcapitulationrevisionsseemsfirmestwithinAsiainKorea(toppickLGU+,SeoulBranchrecentresearchhere)andIn