j.p. 摩根-美股-媒体行业-即将上市的媒体股2018展望

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1、Completed19Dec201711:11PMESTDisseminated20Dec201712:15AMESTNorthAmericaEquityResearch20December2017MediaComingSoonToMediaStocks:2018OutlookInour2018MediaOutlook,weexaminethekeytopicsforstocksacrossourcoverageMediaintheyearahead.Forlargecapmediaweprovideourviewsonthechan

2、gingAClandscapeincludingconsolidation,acceleratingsubscriberdeclines,theproliferationAlexiaS.QuadraniofOTTofferings,advertisingtrends,andvaluation.Wealsoofferourviewontrends(1-212)622-1896alexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.comthatwillimpactagencies,exhibitors,liveentertainment,br

3、oadcasters,outdoor,andBloombergJPMAQUADRANIpublishersinthecomingyear.Weprovidea2017review,bullandbearcaseforeachstockinourcoverageandfinally,weofferour15predictionsfor2018andreviewourDavidKarnovsky,CFApredictionsfor2017.DuetoJ.P.Morgan’sinvolvementincertaintransacti

4、ons,we(1-212)622-1206stdavid.karnovsky@jpmorgan.compreviouslysuspendedourratingsandpricetargetsfor21CenturyFox(FOXA),DiscoveryCommunications(DISCA),Disney(DIS),ScrippsNetworks(SNI),SinclairJuliaYue(SBGI),andTimeWarner(TWX).(1-212)622-9896julia.yue@jpmorgan.comConsolida

5、tionakeythemewithmajorshiftsinconsumerbehaviorpaintingaParrisJTaylornewmedialandscape.AfteryearsofmediaM&Aspeculationbutlittleactivity,(1-212)622-92522016kickedoffwhatweviewedasanewroundofconsolidationwithseveralsmallparris.j.taylor@jpmorgan.comacquisitions,primarilyfoc

6、usedoncontent,throughouttheyearandlargermedia-J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCdistributiondealsannouncedattheendoftheyearwithAT&T/TWXandanothermajordeal.In2017,wesawthelargerpuremediamergerannouncedofJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCisactingDISCA/SNI,andlastweekDisneyannouncedtheacquisiti

7、onofcertainFOXAasfinancialadvisertoTwenty-Firstassets.WhilethereisongoinguncertaintyingeneralastothefutureofthemediaCenturyFoxInconthepotential(anddistribution)landscape,withquestionsovertherightmixofcontentandacquisitionofSkyPLCasannounceddistribution,theDOJ’srecentlaw

8、suittoblocktheAT&T/TWXdealislikelytoaddon9thDecember2016.J.P.Morganmorehesitationtostructurelargerdeals.Howeve