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1、CHAPTER32THEEFFECTOFMEASUREMENTERRORONEVENTHISTORYANALYSISD.Holt,J.W.McDonaldandC.J.SkinnerUniversityofSouthampton32.1INTRODUCTIONThevariousbiological,social,andeconomicprocesseswhichevolveoveranindividual'slifecyclehavelongbeenofinterestinthesocialandlifesciences.Examplesofsuchprocessesin
2、cludethoseofphysicalandpsychologicaldevelopment,education,familyformationandchildbear-ing,socialmobility,andjobmobility.Foragivenindividual,theoutcomeofsuchprocessescanoftenberepresentedbyaneventhistory:arecordoftheoccurrenceandtimingofspecificevents,ateachofwhichtheindividualexperiencesac
3、hangeofstate,forexample,achangeofmaritalstatusorofemploymentstatus.Inrecentyearsincreasingnumbersofsocialsurveyshavecollectedsucheventhistorydataon,forexample,education,fertility,employment,andmigration.Theavail-abilityofmethodsofanalysisandtheirapplicationstosuchdatahavealsoincreasedgreat
4、ly(e.g.,TumaandHannan,1984;Allison,1984;HeckmanandSinger,1985;Blossfeld,etal.,1989).Muchoftheeventhistorydatacollectedinsurveysis,however,retrospectiveand,asdescribedinChapter8,suchdataareparticularlypronetomeasurementerror.Theaimofthischapteristoinvestigatehowsuchmeasurementerrorcanaffect
5、methodsofeventhistoryanalysis.Wehopethisinvestigationwillbeofusetoanalystsofeventhistorydatawhoareconcernedabouthowmeasurementerrormightdistorttheiranalyses.Thenatureoferrorsofretrospectivemeasurementcanvarygreatlybetweenapplicationsandthereforewehavechosentofocusonjusttwoexamples:ageatmen
6、arche(firstmenstruation)anddurationofunemployment.ThesetwoexamplestypicallyinvolveMeasurementErrorsinSurveys.EditedbyBiemer,Groves,Lyberg,Mathiowetz,andSudman.Copyrighte1991byJohnWiley4Sons,Inc.ISBN:0-471-53405-6666MEASUREMENTERRORANDEVENTHISTORYANALYSISsomewhatdifferenttypesofdatacollecti
7、onaswellasdifferenttypesofmeasurementerror.Whileweconcentrateonthesetwoexamples,wedoattempttocouchourdiscussioninaframeworkwhichhasgeneralapplication.Eventhistoryanalysisisconcernedverygenerallywithtransitionsbetweendifferentstates,withdurationsoftimespentinst
