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2、CEEMEAPleaserefertoimportantinformationattheendofthisreport3July2019EMECONOMICS
3、EMSTRATEGYSaudiArabia–Oilconstraintsweakeneconomicgrowthsharp3.4%contractionofQ4tocomeinatgrowthofKEYMESSAGES1.3%.Overall,thenon-oilsectorgrewat2.1%y/yinQ12019comparedto2.0%intheprecedingquarter.The
4、oilsectorslowdownwasthemaindriverofThebounce-backisnotsurprising,inourview,SaudiArabia’srealGDPdecelerationinQ12019.consideringariseof8%y/yingovernmentspendinginWedonotexpectthisyear’slikelytwo25bprateQ12019,drivenbya12%riseincapex.Thishighlightscutstooffsettheimpactofconstraintsonoi
5、loutput,theconstructionandrealestatemarkets’continuedsettolastfortherestoftheyear.dependenceongovernmentspendingandoilproceeds.Forecastdowngrade:Overall,wenowexpecttheAsaresult,wehaveloweredour2019GDPgrowthkingdom’sfull-yearrealGDPgrowthperformancetoforecastby0.7ppto1.7%y/y.disappoin
6、tasVision2030takestimetobearfruitandexpectedratecutsseemsunlikelytooffsetoiloutputOildisappoints:ReportedSaudiminingactivityslowedconstraints.sharplyinQ12019,fromgrowthof6.41%inQ42018toWehaveloweredourfull-yearrealGDPgrowthforecastjust1.03%,reflectingOPEC-imposedcapsonoiloutputto1.7%
7、y/yfrom2.4%,asweseequitelimitedupsidetoinJanuary–March.oiloutputin2019.(OPEC+decidedon1JulytoextendSluggishoilsectorperformancewasthemaindragontheexistingoilsupplycutsuntilMarch2020.)headlineGDPgrowth,whichcameinat1.66%y/yandInourview,oiloutputconstraintsarelikelytooffset−1.94%q/q.An
8、dthreeyearssincetheannouncementgainsinrealestateandconstructionresultingfromofthekingdom’seconomicdiversificationblueprint,forthcomingpolicyratecutsandtheconsequentVision2030,theoilsectorcontinuedtoaccountforincreaseinlendingandmortgageactivity.about42%oftherealeconomy,largelyflatonQ
9、12018.RatecutstoreflectFed:WeexpecttheSaudicentralRealestateliftsnon-oileconomy:Morepositively,banktodelivertworatecutsof25bpeachinJulyandrealestateactivityexpandedby4.8%inthefirstquarterSeptember,trackingthemovesoftheUSFederal–arespectableoutturncomparedwith1.64%intheReserve(seeUSou
10、tlookandFOMC
