资源描述：
《德意志银行-中国银行业财务去杠杆影响系列3-19页》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChinaChinesebanks1May2017Banking/FinanceBanksIndustryUpdateHansFan,CFAJackyZuoFinancialdeleveragingimpactSeries3ResearchAnalystResearchAssociate(+852)22036353(+852)22036255–Mountingcapitalpressurehans.fan@db.comjacky
2、.zuo@db.comCapitalraisingwaveontighterregulations;stayingcautiousonsmallerbanksStephenAndrews,CFAFacingtighterregulationofshadowbanking,weexpectrisingcapitalpressureResearchAnalystonsmallerbanks.Indeed,wehavenotedthat20listedbankshaveannounced(+852)-22036191c
3、apitalraisingplansworthRmb517bn(Figure15),amongwhichRmb66bnwillstephen-a.andrews@db.combeissuedviaprivateplacements.Inabearcase,weestimatethatlistedbankswouldhavetoraiseCET-1capitalofRmb343bn,or18%oftheirmarketcap.AsToppickstradingbelowbook,listedsmallerbanks
4、wouldprobablyhavetoslowassetgrowth,shifttolower-returnassetsandcutdividendsinthenearterm.WeICBC(1398.HK),HKD5.08BuyremaincautiousonsmallerbanksandprefertheBigFourandCMB,withmuchChinaMerchantsBankBuy(3968.HK),HKD20.20strongercapitalbases.Source:DeutscheBankWit
5、hfastgrowingshadowbanking,smallerbanks’capitalmaybeinflatedAllthesmallerbanksinChina,includingjoint-stockandcity/ruralbanks,CompaniesFeaturedrecordedaCET-1ratioof9.8%asattheendof2016.WhilethisishigherthanICBC(1398.HK),HKD5.08Buytheregulatoryrequirement,webeli
6、eveitmaybeinflated.ThisisbecauseChinaConstructionBankBuy(0939.HK),HKD6.32smallerbankshavegrownshadowbankingcreditaggressively(a77%CAGRAgri.BankofChina(1288.HK),HKD3.59Holdinthepastthreeyears),forwhichtheyhavenotsetasidesufficientcapitalriskBankofChina(3988.HK
7、),HKD3.77Buyweighting.Inmanycasestheriskweightingsareaslowas20-25%against100%forgeneralloans.BankofCommunicationsHold(3328.HK),HKD5.99HighlydifferentiatedimpactonbankswhenfacingtighterregulationsChinaMerchantsBankBuyAswehighlightedinSeries1and2,China’sfinanci
8、alregulatorshavebeen(3968.HK),HKD20.20tighteningregulationofshadowbankingandpledgedtoensuresufficientChinaCITICBank(0998.HK),HKD4.93Sellcapitalprotection.Iftheseregulationsarestrictlyimpl
