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1、ABGlobalResearch26November2019USLifeInsuranceDrumsticks,StuffingandLife;AMid-QuarterRefreshandThoughtson2020OutlooksWeMaintainaCautiousViewontheSectorSinceOct9th(dateofourcautious3Qpreview),theUBSLifeIndexisup13.6%vs.theS&P+7.3%,XLF+11.4%and10-Yearyield+16bps.Inaword,ourcautionwasmispla
2、ced.Duringthatperiod,theNTMP/EofourLifeIndexincreased9%,from7.7xto8.4x,asvaluationexpansiondrovetwo-thirdsofthesector'sperformance.Webelievethiswaslargelyafunctionoffactorrotationasopposedtomorefundamentaldemandforlifeinsurancestocks.At8.4x,thegroupremainshistoricallycheap,butgivenweexpe
3、ctmorethanhalfofourcoveragewillmiss4Q19&2020consensus,wemaintainacautiousviewwithonly1"traditional"LifestockBuy-rated–ATH.MostCompaniesPrudentlyReducedLong-TermInterestRatesAssumptionsForLifestocksoverall,webelievelowerforlongerinterestratesremainsaconsiderableoverhangonsectorvaluation.A
4、ssuch,wehaveurgedmanagementstoincorporatemoreconservativeinterestrateassumptionsintoreserve/DACaccounts,withexpectationthatmightimproveinvestorconfidenceinowninglifeinsurancestocks.With3Q19results,ourcoveragegenerallycutinterestrateassumptionsanditappearstheimpactonStatutorycashflowsshou
5、ldbemanageable,withlittle-to-noexpectedimpacton2020distributablecashflowsandthuscapitalmanagement.PositiveEquityMarkets,PersistentLowRatesDriveMixedEst.&PTRevisionsRelativetoourestimatespriorto3Q19results,our2020EEPSare,onaverage,largelyunchanged.Thesimpleaverage,however,beliesafewsignif
6、icantindividualrevisions,includingAEL,AMPandMETmostnotablytothepositive,andBHF,PRU,FGandLNCmostnotablytothenegative(seeFig.1).Reflectingimprovedvaluationforthegroup,wearegenerallyincreasingpricetargets,butstillseeupside/downsideaslargelyunattractivewithveryfewexceptions.InvestorDays&2020
7、OutlooksontheHorizonUpcomingeventsinclude:AFLcallDec.2;PFGcallDec.11;METmeetingDec.12andUNMmeetingDec.17.We'vehistoricallyviewedoutlookeventsasneutral-to-negativecatalystsforLifestocksandexpectthisyear'seventstobenodifferent.OursenseisinvestorsexpectMET'seventtobethemostp
