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1、ABGlobalResearch12November2018USLifeInsurance3Q18Wrap-Up;ThoughtsonPositioningand2019Outlooks;ATH,AMP&VOYATopPicksRe-RankingOurCoverageComingoutof3Q18earningsandtakingintoaccountexpectationsfor2019outlooksaswellasrecentrelativestockperformance,were-rankou
2、rcoverage,thoughwemakenochangestoouroverallratings.AmongourBuy-ratedstocks,wehighlightATH,AMPandVOYAasourfavorites.AmongourNeutrals,weareincrementallymostpositiveonBHFandmostcautiousonPFGgivenourbelow-consensusforecast,including4Q18.Webelievethemodestnega
3、tivereactionstoATH&PRUresultshaveprovidedsolidopportunitiesbothonanabsoluteandrelativebasis,whilethestrengthinAELpostcoreresultsthatwerelargelyinlineseemstoustobesomewhatoverdone.WefindrecentweaknessinBHFshares(followinginitialpositiveresponseto3Qresults)
4、surprisinggiventheincrementallypositiveoutlookforcapitalmanagement.Long-TermCareDisclosureHasMeaningfullyImprovedWith3Q18results,AMPandMETprovidedadditionalLTCdisclosure.WithinweoutlineasummaryviewofkeydisclosuresfromAMP,GE,MFC,MET,PRUandUNM.Keytakeawaysi
5、nclude:1)morbidityimprovementremainsacontroversialassumption;2)mgmtcommentarysuggestspoliciesw/lifetimebenefitsareparticularlyproblematicduetoanti-selectionandlongerclaimdurations;3)reservinglevelscontinuetovarysignificantlyacrosscompanies,bothduetodiffer
6、encesinassumptionsaswellasunderlyingpolicycharacteristics;and4)differentagesofblocksandratiosofpolicyholdersonclaimleadtovaryinglevelsofclaimsexperienceandstatisticalcredibility.WithregardtoGE,wethinkinvestorscouldusenewdisclosuresfromLifecostoseekincreas
7、eddisclosure,includingonassumptionsandsensitivitiesaroundmorbidity/mortalityimprovementandpoliciesw/lifetimebenefitsandcompoundinflation.Additionally,withtwodealsalreadyin2018,therisktransfermarketlookstobeevolving.WebelieveAMPandPRUarebestpositionedforLT
8、Crisktransfer.UpcomingInvestorDays/OutlooksUpcomingInvestorDaysinclude:VOYAonNov.13thwithafocuson2019-2021targetsincludingcapitalmanagement;PFGonNov.15thwithadeepdiveondigitalstrategies;UNMonDec.12th.UpcomingOutlook
