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1、RESEARCHARTICLEelifesciences.orgMappingthezoonoticnicheofEbolavirusdiseaseinAfricaDavidMPigott1†,NickGolding1†,AdrianMylne1,ZhiHuang1,AndrewJHenry1,DanielJWeiss1,OliverJBrady1,MoritzUGKraemer1,DavidLSmith1,2,CatherineLMoyes1,SamirBhatt1,PeterWGething1,PeterWHorby3,IsaacIBogoch4,
2、5,JohnSBrownstein6,7,SumikoRMekaru8,AndrewJTatem9,10,13,KamranKhan4,11,SimonIHay1,12*1SpatialEcologyandEpidemiologyGroup,DepartmentofZoology,UniversityofOxford,Oxford,UnitedKingdom;2SanariaInstituteforGlobalHealthandTropicalMedicine,Rockville,UnitedStates;3EpidemicDiseasesResear
3、chGroup,CentreforTropicalMedicineandGlobalHealth,UniversityofOxford,Oxford,UnitedKingdom;4DepartmentofMedicine,DivisionofInfectiousDiseases,UniversityofToronto,Toronto,Canada;5DivisionsofInternalMedicineandInfectiousDiseases,UniversityHealthNetwork,Toronto,Toronto,Canada;6Depart
4、mentofPediatrics,HarvardMedicalSchool,Boston,UnitedStates;7Children'sHospitalInformaticsProgram,BostonChildren'sHospital,Boston,UnitedStates;8Children'sHospitalInformaticsProgram,BostonChildren'sHospital,Boston,UnitedStates;9DepartmentofGeographyandEnvironment,UniversityofSoutha
5、mpton,Southampton,UnitedKingdom;10FogartyInternationalCenter,NationalInstitutesofHealth,Bethesda,UnitedStates;11LiKaShingKnowledgeInstitute,St.Michael'sHospital,Toronto,Canada;12FogartyInternationalCenter,NationalInstitutesofHealth,Bethseda,UnitedStates;13FlowminderFoundation,St
6、ockholm,SwedenAbstractEbolavirusdisease(EVD)isacomplexzoonosisthatishighlyvirulentinhumans.ThelargestrecordedoutbreakofEVDisongoinginWestAfrica,outsideofitspreviouslyreportedand*Forcorrespondence:simon.predictedniche.Weassembledlocationdataonallrecordedzoonotictransmissiontohuma
7、nsandhay@zoo.ox.ac.ukEbolavirusinfectioninbatsandprimates(1976–2014).Usingspeciesdistributionmodels,these†Theseauthorscontributedoccurrencedatawerepairedwithenvironmentalcovariatestopredictazoonotictransmissionequallytothisworknichecovering22countriesacrossCentralandWestAfrica.V
8、egetation,elevation,temperature,evapotranspirat