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1、COREU.S.ConsumerStaples3Q18“AllConsumer”EPSPreviewHeadinginto3Q18,wefindthatmanyofthethemeswe’vebeentrackingthisyearstillremainnotableconcernsforinvestors,namelyinflation&pricingdynamicsandinternationalfactors(i.e.currency,tariffs,emergingmarketsgrowth).Forthegroupasawhole,weremaincautiousontheoutlo
2、okforCY19giventhesefactors.Amidstinflation,ourcompanieshaveincreasinglyspokentoaneedforpricingactions(evenifnotintheformoflistpriceincreases).ThoughdifferentcompaniesINDUSTRYUPDATEU.S.CHPC&BeveragesNEUTRALUnchangedU.S.FoodNEUTRALUnchangedEquityResearch15October2018(andsectors)areatdifferentpointsi
3、ntheimplementationprocess,weexpectpricingtobepartofthedebatethisquarterasskepticismremainsaroundtheachievabilityandForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseetableonpage2.sustainabilityofpricingactionsandvolumeelasticity.Namely,inpackagedfood,thoughwehaveseencompani
4、espullalternativepriceleversoverthecourseoftheyear,theelasticityofvolumeandtheabilityofourcompaniestomaintainhigherpricepointsonshelfarekeyquestions,inourview,particularlyasafewcompanies(BGS,HAIN),starttoseelistpriceflowthroughinameaningfulway.InCHPC,expectationshaveturnedmorepositiveoncompanies’abi
5、litytogetpricingthroughsoC3Q18shouldbeakeyproofpoint.AndinBeverages,wehaveseenadichotomybetweennon-alcoholicnames(e.g.KO,PEP,KDP),wherepriceincreaseshavealreadybeenimplemented,versusalcoholicnameswhichhaveshownfewsignsofactionthusfar.Allin,wecontinuetobelievecompaniesacrossStapleswillbeabletogetpric
6、ingthrough,evenifitrequiresabitmoregive-and-takewithretailersthanithasinthepast.Theinternationalenvironmentcontinuestobeakeysourceofconcerngivencurrencyvolatilityandtradetariffs.Onthetopicofcurrencyvolatility,we’veadjustedourmodelsandbelievethatFXpressure,combinedwiththecommoditypressuredescribedabo
7、ve,maycreaterisktobothcurrentfiscalquarterdeliveryandcurrentfiscalyearguidancethisseason.Perhapsthegreaterconcernforinternationallyexposednamesisthatcurrencyvolatilitywilleventuallytranslateintoreduce
