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1、2011年08月12日06:24AMChinashouldletitscurrencyrise.Suchhasbeenthedesperate,decade-longcomplaintfromtheUSanditspoliticians.China’smanipulationofitscurrencyisapopularscapegoatbothforthefinancialcrisisandfortheextinctionofUSmanufacturing.AnappreciationisplainlyinChina’surg
2、entinterests.Andtherestoftheworld,includingtheUS,isbeginningtograspthatithasreasontofeartheconsequencesifitdoes.OnWednesdayandThursdayofthisweek,China’sauthoritiesatonepointallowedtherenminbitoappreciateagainstthedollarbyagreaterpercentagethaninanytwo-dayperiodsincei
3、tsmanagedrisefirststartedin2005.Thesemovesremaintiny;buttheycombinewithofficialcriticismoftheUS,agrowingneedtocombatChineseinflationandmuchChinesecommentaryfavouringachangeofpolicytosuggestthattherenminbimaysoonbeallowedtotakeflight.Awideningofitstradingbandsmightbea
4、firstincrementalstep.Unlikethefirstmanagedappreciation,from2005to2008,thecurrent“appreciation”hasdonenothingtohelpdomesticinflation.Bytyingtothedollar,acurrencysinkinglikeastone,therenminbihasdepreciatedagainstallcurrenciesonatrade-weightedbasis,JPMorgandatashow.Adra
5、sticshiftisneeded.Thatwillmeanexportingitsinflation.Italsomeansbuyingfewertreasuries,orevensellingsome,whichwouldinturncounteractanyeffortsat“quantitativeeasing”–buyingbondstokeepUSyieldslow.Thedollarwouldprobablytumble,andtreasuryyieldsrise.Othereffectsarelessclear.
6、TheAustraliandollar,longaproxyforChinesegrowth,mightsufferifChinaslows,asmightothercommodity-drivencurrenciesbutmuchdependsonChina’sowndecisions.China’sexternalreservesareenough,evenatcurrentprices,tobuyallthegoldeverproduced.Itwillbehardtoshiftpolicywithoutcausingab
7、igdisplacementelsewhereintheworld.Correctingthisglobalimbalancemaybenecessarybutitwillnotbeeasy.Lex专栏：美国担心人民币升值？中国应该让人民币升值——美国及其政界人士为此声嘶力竭地抱怨了10年。从金融危机到美国制造业的衰亡，“中国操纵人民币汇率”都是热门的替罪羊。人民币升值显然符合中国的利益。而包括美国在内的世界其它国家正开始意识到，它们有理由担心人民币升值的后果。本周三和周四，中国官方一度允许人民币兑美元汇率以较大幅度上涨，涨幅超
8、过2005年中国启动汇改以来任何一个两天期间。这些升值步伐仍是微小的；但它们与中国官方对美国的批评、中国日需迫切需要遏制通胀、以及中国近期出现的大量支持改变政策的言论相结合，似乎表明人民币不久可能获准大幅走高。扩大其交易区间也许是第一个渐进步骤。与2005年至2
